League One · Matchday 9Postponed

Peterborough vs Notts County

· ABAX Stadium, Peterborough

Alin prediction Peterborough to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PeterboroughDrawNotts County

Peterborough vs Notts County: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePeterboroughDrawNotts County
Model36%31%33%
Market———
Published36%31%33%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Peterborough vs Notts County odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Peterborough, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.17Now 2.14 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Peterborough2.172.14-0.03
Draw3.623.62+0.00
Notts County3.023.02+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Peterborough and Notts County expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.10Peterborough
1.08Notts County
Total expected goals
2.19
Attack rating (Peterborough / Notts County)
0.83 / 0.78
Defence rating (Peterborough / Notts County)
1.17 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Peterborough vs Notts County score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.6% 10.8% 6.6% 2.4% 0.8% 1 11.0% 14.8% 7.3% 2.6% 0.9% 2 6.8% 7.4% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 3 2.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Peterborough goals. Columns: Notts County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Peterborough vs Notts County goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Peterborough vs Notts County

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Peterborough36%2.76
Draw31%3.27
Notts County33%3.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.39
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (Peterborough or draw)67%1.50
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or Notts County)64%1.57
Handicap -1Peterborough win by 2+14%6.93
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Peterborough and Notts County recent form

Peterborough 0W 3D 3L
Notts County 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Peterborough at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Notts County away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Peterborough at home only, Notts County away only.

Peterborough vs Notts County head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Peterborough 1 · draws 0 · Notts County 0.

PeterboroughDrawsNotts County
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-11-30Peterborough4-3Notts CountyEngland FA Cup

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