League One · Matchday 9Postponed

AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage

· Plough Lane, Wimbledon

Alin prediction Stevenage to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AFC WimbledonDrawStevenage

AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAFC WimbledonDrawStevenage
Model25%33%42%
Market———
Published25%33%42%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stevenage, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.47Now 2.46 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AFC Wimbledon2.922.90-0.02
Draw3.103.05-0.05
Stevenage2.472.46-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.89AFC Wimbledon
1.10Stevenage
Total expected goals
1.99
Attack rating (AFC Wimbledon / Stevenage)
0.64 / 0.98
Defence rating (AFC Wimbledon / Stevenage)
0.95 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.0% 13.7% 8.3% 3.0% 1.1% 1 10.8% 14.7% 7.4% 2.7% 0.9% 2 5.4% 5.9% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 3 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: AFC Wimbledon goals. Columns: Stevenage goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 32%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AFC Wimbledon25%3.96
Draw33%3.03
Stevenage42%2.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.11
Under 2.568%1.47
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.49
No60%1.67
Double chance1X (AFC Wimbledon or draw)58%1.72
12 (either side)67%1.49
X2 (draw or Stevenage)75%1.34
Handicap -1Stevenage win by 2+16%6.06
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage recent form

AFC Wimbledon 3W 2D 1L
Stevenage 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AFC Wimbledon at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
4 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Stevenage away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: AFC Wimbledon at home only, Stevenage away only.

AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 0 · draws 1 · Stevenage 1.

AFC WimbledonDrawsStevenage
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-14Stevenage1-0AFC WimbledonLeague One
2025-12-26AFC Wimbledon0-0StevenageLeague One

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