Bradford vs Doncaster preview
In the League One fixture between Bradford and Doncaster, the 1X2 probabilities show Bradford at 80% and Doncaster at 5%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-0, which has a 15% chance of occurring. Bradford's expected goals stand at 2.53, while Doncaster's is just 0.53, indicating a significant attacking advantage for Bradford.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Doncaster manages to improve their recent form, which includes 5 losses in their last 6 matches. Additionally, while there is a 59% chance of Over 2.5 goals, the likelihood of both teams to score is only 38%, suggesting that a low-scoring game is also possible.
Bradford vs Doncaster: model vs market
| Source | Bradford | Draw | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 0.53.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bradford and Doncaster expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Bradford / Doncaster)
- 1.15 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Bradford / Doncaster)
- 0.58 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bradford vs Doncaster score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bradford goals. Columns: Doncaster goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bradford vs Doncaster goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bradford vs Doncaster
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bradford | 80% | 1.25 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.79 | |
| Doncaster | 5% | 19.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.60 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bradford or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Doncaster) | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bradford win by 2+ | 59% | 1.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Bradford and Doncaster recent form
Bradford
3W 2D 1L
Doncaster
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bradford at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Doncaster away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-5
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bradford at home only, Doncaster away only.
Bradford vs Doncaster head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bradford 1 · draws 0 · Doncaster 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Bradford | 1-0 | Doncaster | League One |
| 2025-09-06 | Doncaster | 3-1 | Bradford | League One |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Leicester 2026-11-21
- Burton Albion v Luton — match page 2026-11-21
- Oxford United vs Wycombe — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Plymouth v Peterborough — match page 2026-11-21
- Cambridge United vs Stockport County — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon 2026-11-21
- Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons — match page 2026-11-21
- Notts County vs Stevenage — team news & stats 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Bradford, previous: Leicester vs Bradford: odds and pick
- Bradford, next: Wimborne Town – Bradford, 2026-12-05
- Doncaster, previous: Doncaster – Leyton Orient, 2026-11-14