Cambridge United vs Stockport County preview
Cambridge United faces Stockport County with a 22% chance of winning for Cambridge and a 52% chance for Stockport. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Stockport's expected goals of 1.75 compared to Cambridge's 1.08.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Cambridge United recording L-L-D-L-D-W and Stockport County on a stronger run of W-W-L-D-W-W. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 54% and both teams to score at 56%. If Cambridge can improve their scoring, it could challenge the expected outcome.
Cambridge United vs Stockport County: model vs market
| Source | Cambridge United | Draw | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cambridge United and Stockport County expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Cambridge United / Stockport County)
- 0.88 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Cambridge United / Stockport County)
- 1.17 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cambridge United vs Stockport County score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cambridge United goals. Columns: Stockport County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cambridge United vs Stockport County goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cambridge United vs Stockport County
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cambridge United | 22% | 4.48 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Stockport County | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cambridge United or draw) | 48% | 2.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Stockport County) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stockport County win by 2+ | 29% | 3.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Cambridge United and Stockport County recent form
Cambridge United
1W 2D 3L
Stockport County
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cambridge United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stockport County away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cambridge United at home only, Stockport County away only.
Cambridge United vs Stockport County head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cambridge United 0 · draws 1 · Stockport County 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Stockport County | 0-0 | Cambridge United | England FA Cup |
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Before and after this match
- Cambridge United, previous: Luton vs Cambridge United: odds and pick
- Stockport County, previous: Stockport County v Reading analysis
- Stockport County, next: Reading vs Stockport County: odds and pick