Updated

League One · Matchday 15

Stockport County vs Reading

· Edgeley Park, Stockport

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Stockport County to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Stockport CountyDrawReading

Stockport County vs Reading: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStockport CountyDrawReading
Model37%28%34%
Market52%24%24%
Published48%25%27%
Edge-4%+1%+3%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Stockport County vs Reading odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stockport County, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 1.81Now 1.81 -0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Stockport County1.811.81-0.00
Draw3.823.88+0.06
Reading3.903.90+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Stockport County and Reading expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.36Stockport County
1.30Reading
Total expected goals
2.66
Attack rating (Stockport County / Reading)
1.27 / 1.34
Defence rating (Stockport County / Reading)
0.83 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stockport County vs Reading score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.2% 7.8% 5.9% 2.6% 1.1% 1 8.2% 13.6% 8.1% 3.5% 1.5% 2 6.4% 8.4% 5.5% 2.4% 1.0% 3 2.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Stockport County goals. Columns: Reading goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stockport County vs Reading goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stockport County vs Reading

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Stockport County48%2.08
Draw25%3.97
Reading27%3.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.01
Under 2.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.80
No45%2.24
Double chance1X (Stockport County or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Reading)52%1.93
Handicap -1Stockport County win by 2+18%5.70
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Stockport County and Reading recent form

Stockport County 4W 1D 1L
Reading 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Stockport County at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-2
Win rate
71%
Goals for / match
2.29
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Reading away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-3
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.14
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Stockport County at home only, Reading away only.

Expected lineups

Stockport County lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 Oliver Whatmuff
  2. 5 E. Pye
  3. 6 E. O'Connell
  4. 24 Kyron Silveria Gordon
  5. 30 Ethan Ennis
  6. 10 O. Norwood
  7. 4 L. Bate
  8. 23 B. Osborn
  9. 16 H. Wood
  10. 19 K. Wootton
  11. 7 J. Diamond

Bench: J. Dacres-Cogley, T. Edun, R. Glover, L. Fiorini, J. Adigun, M. Mandron, M. Jobe

Reading lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Joel Pereira
  2. 5 H. Roberts
  3. 23 C. Masterson
  4. 20 J. Knight
  5. 2 U. Godwin-Malife
  6. 6 L. Fraser
  7. 10 L. Wing
  8. 11 D. Kyerewaa
  9. 8 C. Savage
  10. 19 Kyreece Lisbie
  11. 7 J. Marriott

Bench: J. Reid, R. Williams, S. Patton, J. Stevens, J. Stokes, A. Ahmed, J. Jones

Stockport County vs Reading head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Stockport County 2 · draws 1 · Reading 1.

Stockport CountyDrawsReading
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-04Reading1-0Stockport CountyLeague One
2025-09-27Stockport County1-1ReadingLeague One
2025-01-18Reading1-3Stockport CountyLeague One
2024-10-29Stockport County4-1ReadingLeague One

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match