Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County

· Flamingo Park, Chislehurst

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Stockport County to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Cray WanderersDrawStockport County

Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCray WanderersDrawStockport County
Model42%32%25%
Market7%13%80%
Published16%18%67%
Edge+9%+5%-14%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stockport County, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.15Now 1.15 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cray Wanderers14.2013.00-1.20
Draw7.407.40+0.00
Stockport County1.151.15+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cray Wanderers and Stockport County expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Cray Wanderers
0.86Stockport County
Total expected goals
2.05
Attack rating (Cray Wanderers / Stockport County)
0.99 / 0.99
Defence rating (Cray Wanderers / Stockport County)
0.59 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.2% 9.8% 4.8% 1.4% 0.4% 1 14.0% 14.5% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 2 9.1% 7.8% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 3 3.6% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Cray Wanderers goals. Columns: Stockport County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cray Wanderers16%6.29
Draw18%5.71
Stockport County67%1.50
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.97
Under 2.566%1.51
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.41
No59%1.71
Double chance1X (Cray Wanderers or draw)33%2.99
12 (either side)82%1.21
X2 (draw or Stockport County)84%1.19
Handicap -1Stockport County win by 2+9%11.32
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cray Wanderers and Stockport County recent form

Cray Wanderers 3W 3D 0L
Stockport County 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cray Wanderers at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Cray Wanderers at home only, Stockport County away only.

Expected lineups

Cray Wanderers lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 2 C. Lema
  2. 16 S. McLeod

Bench: A. Payne, S. Kader

Stockport County lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 26 L. Ashby-Hammond
  2. 12 T. Wilson-Brown
  3. 6 E. O'Connell
  4. 2 J. Dacres-Cogley
  5. 20 J. Adigun
  6. 18 L. Fiorini
  7. 16 H. Wood
  8. 14 T. Edun
  9. 28 C. Gardner
  10. 22 M. Mandron
  11. 9 B. Andrésson

Bench: Oliver Whatmuff, E. Pye, J. Diamond, K. Wootton, J. Mingi, James Bailey, Joe Astles, R. Ilara

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match