Updated

League One · Matchday 16

Oxford United vs Wycombe

· Kassam Stadium, Oxford

Alin prediction Oxford United to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Oxford UnitedDrawWycombe
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.96.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Oxford United vs Wycombe preview

In the upcoming League One fixture, Oxford United has a 49% chance of winning against Wycombe, who sit at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Oxford's expected goals stand at 1.51, while Wycombe's is 0.96.

However, the match could deviate from this forecast. Both teams to score has a probability of 49%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions. Over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, showing that while scoring may be limited, there is still potential for more action.

Oxford United vs Wycombe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOxford UnitedDrawWycombe
Model49%28%23%
Market———
Published49%28%23%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.96.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Oxford United and Wycombe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Oxford United
0.96Wycombe
Total expected goals
2.47
Attack rating (Oxford United / Wycombe)
0.99 / 1.20
Defence rating (Oxford United / Wycombe)
0.68 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Oxford United vs Wycombe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 6.9% 3.9% 1.2% 0.4% 1 11.6% 13.5% 5.9% 1.9% 0.5% 2 9.7% 9.3% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 3 4.9% 4.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Oxford United goals. Columns: Wycombe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Oxford United vs Wycombe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Oxford United vs Wycombe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Oxford United49%2.04
Draw28%3.52
Wycombe23%4.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.23
Under 2.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (Oxford United or draw)77%1.29
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Wycombe)51%1.96
Handicap -1Oxford United win by 2+26%3.91
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Oxford United and Wycombe recent form

Oxford United 3W 2D 1L
Wycombe 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Oxford United at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-0
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
0.57
Clean sheets
4 of 7
  • They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wycombe away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Oxford United at home only, Wycombe away only.

Other Matchday 16 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Oxford United to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Oxford United