Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town

· Matchroom Stadium, London

Full time5 – 1

Alin prediction was Leyton Orient to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Leyton OrientDrawHarborough Town

Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeyton OrientDrawHarborough Town
Model36%28%36%
Market68%18%14%
Published60%21%19%
Edge-8%+2%+6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leyton Orient, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.37Now 1.36 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leyton Orient1.371.36-0.01
Draw5.005.00+0.00
Harborough Town6.856.67-0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leyton Orient and Harborough Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Leyton Orient
1.38Harborough Town
Total expected goals
2.76
Attack rating (Leyton Orient / Harborough Town)
0.85 / 1.29
Defence rating (Leyton Orient / Harborough Town)
0.73 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 7.6% 6.1% 2.8% 1.3% 1 7.5% 13.3% 8.3% 3.9% 1.8% 2 6.0% 8.3% 5.7% 2.6% 1.2% 3 2.7% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6% 4+ 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Leyton Orient goals. Columns: Harborough Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leyton Orient60%1.67
Draw21%4.81
Harborough Town19%5.15
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.34
Double chance1X (Leyton Orient or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Harborough Town)40%2.49
Handicap -1Leyton Orient win by 2+17%5.90
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leyton Orient and Harborough Town recent form

Leyton Orient 2W 1D 3L
Harborough Town 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Leyton Orient lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Baxter
  2. 19 S. Boniface
  3. 12 A. Gilchrist
  4. 4 R. Edmonds-Green
  5. 2 F. Stevens
  6. 8 I. El Mizouni
  7. 20 A. Gilbert
  8. 17 A. Dobra
  9. 25 Charlie Gerard Richard Wellens
  10. 10 A. Connolly
  11. 9 J. Kabia

Bench: J. Morris, J. Olowu, Noah Phillips, I. Hayden, Cristian Păscăluță, D. Scarlett, Y. Akhamrich, T. Springett, P. Chinedu

Harborough Town lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 3 E. Putman
  2. 2 G. Carline
  3. 8 C. Kennedy
  4. 29 M. Jacobs
  5. 27 B. Assombalonga

Bench: S. Osborne, Paul Malone, K. Hudlin

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match