Updated

League One · Matchday 15Postponed

Bromley vs Notts County

· Copperjax Community Stadium, Bromley

Alin prediction Notts County to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BromleyDrawNotts County
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.01.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.

Bromley vs Notts County: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBromleyDrawNotts County
Model19%25%56%
Market31%28%41%
Published28%27%45%
Edge-3%-1%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Notts County below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bromley vs Notts County odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Notts County, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.21Now 2.25 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bromley2.982.95-0.03
Draw3.503.30-0.20
Notts County2.212.25+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bromley and Notts County expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Bromley
1.84Notts County
Total expected goals
2.85
Attack rating (Bromley / Notts County)
0.75 / 0.96
Defence rating (Bromley / Notts County)
1.63 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bromley vs Notts County score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 9.6% 9.8% 6.0% 4.2% 1 4.7% 11.8% 9.9% 6.1% 4.3% 2 2.9% 5.4% 5.0% 3.1% 2.2% 3 1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.7% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Bromley goals. Columns: Notts County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bromley vs Notts County goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bromley vs Notts County

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bromley28%3.54
Draw27%3.69
Notts County45%2.24
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.84
Under 2.546%2.19
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.20
Double chance1X (Bromley or draw)55%1.81
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Notts County)72%1.39
Handicap -1Notts County win by 2+33%3.05
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bromley and Notts County recent form

Bromley 0W 1D 5L
Notts County 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bromley at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-3
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Notts County away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-2
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bromley at home only, Notts County away only.

Bromley vs Notts County head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bromley 2 · draws 7 · Notts County 1.

BromleyDrawsNotts County
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14Bromley1-1Notts CountyLeague Two
2025-08-23Notts County2-2BromleyLeague Two
2025-01-25Notts County1-1BromleyLeague Two
2024-09-14Bromley2-4Notts CountyLeague Two
2023-03-04Bromley1-1Notts CountyNational League
2022-11-01Notts County1-1BromleyNational League
2022-01-29Bromley1-0Notts CountyNational League
2021-10-26Notts County1-1BromleyNational League
2021-05-29Bromley1-0Notts CountyNational League
2021-05-15Notts County2-2BromleyNational League

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match