Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Altrincham vs Notts County

· Moss Lane, Altrincham

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Notts County to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AltrinchamDrawNotts County

Altrincham vs Notts County: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAltrinchamDrawNotts County
Model50%28%22%
Market21%23%55%
Published28%24%47%
Edge+7%+1%-8%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Altrincham vs Notts County odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Notts County, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.71Now 1.67 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Altrincham4.204.37+0.17
Draw4.003.95-0.05
Notts County1.711.67-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Altrincham and Notts County expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.59Altrincham
0.97Notts County
Total expected goals
2.56
Attack rating (Altrincham / Notts County)
1.23 / 0.76
Defence rating (Altrincham / Notts County)
0.87 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Altrincham vs Notts County score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 6.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 1 11.1% 13.1% 5.8% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.8% 9.5% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 3 5.2% 5.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 2.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Altrincham goals. Columns: Notts County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Altrincham vs Notts County goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Altrincham vs Notts County

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Altrincham28%3.51
Draw24%4.08
Notts County47%2.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.12
Under 2.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Altrincham or draw)53%1.89
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Notts County)72%1.40
Handicap -1Notts County win by 2+8%12.38
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Altrincham and Notts County recent form

Altrincham 2W 3D 1L
Notts County 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Altrincham at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Altrincham at home only, Notts County away only.

Expected lineups

Altrincham lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 5 J. Southern-Cooper
  2. 21 R. Lopata-White
  3. 2 L. Banks
  4. 22 T. Crawford
  5. 7 Otis Khan
  6. 10 A. Barlow
  7. 15 S. Taylor

Bench: K. Dennis, A. Firth, P. Brown

Notts County lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 J. Gibbons
  2. 26 I. Samuels-Smith
  3. 4 J. Bedeau
  4. 12 L. Ness
  5. 3 R. McDonald
  6. 20 S. Robertson
  7. 25 N. Tsaroulla
  8. 27 R. Finneran
  9. 19 L. Smyth
  10. 9 D. Kanu
  11. 7 C. Roberts

Bench: M. Sanders, R. Longelo-Mbule, D. Lipsiuc, J. Evans, D. Campbell, M. Palmer, L. Ndlovu, H. Mustapha

Altrincham vs Notts County head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Altrincham 1 · draws 1 · Notts County 5.

AltrinchamDrawsNotts County
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-03-28Altrincham0-2Notts CountyNational League
2022-10-01Notts County3-1AltrinchamNational League
2022-05-07Notts County3-0AltrinchamNational League
2021-12-18Notts County2-1AltrinchamFA Trophy
2021-09-25Altrincham1-0Notts CountyNational League
2021-05-01Altrincham1-1Notts CountyNational League
2020-10-07Notts County3-1AltrinchamNational League

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match