Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Barnsley vs Aldershot Town

· Oakwell Ground, Barnsley

Full time7 – 2

Alin prediction was Barnsley to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BarnsleyDrawAldershot Town

Barnsley vs Aldershot Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBarnsleyDrawAldershot Town
Model30%25%45%
Market74%15%11%
Published63%18%19%
Edge-11%+2%+9%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Barnsley vs Aldershot Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Barnsley, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.25Now 1.25 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Barnsley1.251.25+0.00
Draw6.056.05+0.00
Aldershot Town8.958.57-0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Barnsley and Aldershot Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Barnsley
1.79Aldershot Town
Total expected goals
3.23
Attack rating (Barnsley / Aldershot Town)
0.81 / 1.07
Defence rating (Barnsley / Aldershot Town)
1.14 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Barnsley vs Aldershot Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 6.1% 6.4% 3.8% 2.6% 1 4.7% 11.2% 9.2% 5.5% 3.7% 2 4.1% 7.3% 6.6% 3.9% 2.6% 3 1.9% 3.5% 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% 4+ 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Barnsley goals. Columns: Aldershot Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Barnsley vs Aldershot Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Barnsley vs Aldershot Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Barnsley63%1.59
Draw18%5.64
Aldershot Town19%5.15
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.60
Under 2.537%2.67
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.55
No36%2.82
Double chance1X (Barnsley or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Aldershot Town)37%2.69
Handicap -1Barnsley win by 2+14%7.15
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Barnsley and Aldershot Town recent form

Barnsley 0W 2D 4L
Aldershot Town 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aldershot Town away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Barnsley at home only, Aldershot Town away only.

Expected lineups

Barnsley lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 C. Slicker
  2. 3 Z. Larkeche
  3. 2 A. Kay
  4. 4 S. Gale
  5. 12 J. Okedina
  6. 48 L. Connell
  7. 8 C. McGeehan
  8. 19 R. Cleary
  9. 14 D. Johnson
  10. 45 Vimal Yoganathan

Bench: J. Shepherd, M. Kirk, T. Noslin, Amani Richards, Patrick Kelly, Rogan Ravenhill

Aldershot Town lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Hayes
  2. 3 O. Harfield
  3. 12 Michael George Stickland
  4. 5 Kiki Oshilaja
  5. 17 T. Dyce
  6. 6 D. Odusanya
  7. 4 Jacob Borgnis
  8. 11 Hakeem Kwabena Owusu Sandah
  9. 10 B. Tuma
  10. 21 B. Peart
  11. 7 T. Abrahams

Bench: J. Gilbert, M. Dinanga, C. Patmore, J. Matton, N. Adom-Malaki, Marcus Wyllie, Anisius Lewis, J. Robinson

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match