Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday preview
In the League One fixture between Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday, the 1X2 probabilities show Barnsley at 44%, a draw at 24%, and Sheffield Wednesday at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Barnsley has an expected goals figure of 1.92, while Sheffield Wednesday sits at 1.63.
Both teams to score has a 70% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 69%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions. Recent form shows Barnsley with W-D-L-L-L-L and Sheffield Wednesday with L-D-D-L-L-W, which could impact the match outcome.
Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday: model vs market
| Source | Barnsley | Draw | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.56
- Attack rating (Barnsley / Sheffield Wednesday)
- 1.35 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Barnsley / Sheffield Wednesday)
- 1.37 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barnsley goals. Columns: Sheffield Wednesday goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnsley | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barnsley or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Sheffield Wednesday) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnsley win by 2+ | 25% | 4.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday recent form
Barnsley
1W 1D 4L
Sheffield Wednesday
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barnsley at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sheffield Wednesday away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barnsley at home only, Sheffield Wednesday away only.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
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- Huddersfield vs Leicester 2026-11-21
- Burton Albion v Luton — match page 2026-11-21
- Oxford United vs Wycombe — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Bradford vs Doncaster 2026-11-21
- Plymouth v Peterborough — match page 2026-11-21
- Cambridge United vs Stockport County — team news & stats 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Barnsley, previous: Wigan vs Barnsley prediction
- Barnsley, next: Wigan vs Barnsley prediction
- Sheffield Wednesday, previous: Sheffield Wednesday – Plymouth, 2026-11-14