Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday

· Boundary Park, Oldham· Referee Martin Woods

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Sheffield Wednesday to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
OldhamDrawSheffield Wednesday

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOldhamDrawSheffield Wednesday
Model29%33%39%
Market26%25%48%
Published27%27%46%
Edge+1%+2%-2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sheffield Wednesday, 14 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.60Now 1.93 +0.33
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Oldham4.333.52-0.81
Draw4.003.67-0.33
Sheffield Wednesday1.601.93+0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.94Oldham
1.13Sheffield Wednesday
Total expected goals
2.06
Attack rating (Oldham / Sheffield Wednesday)
0.68 / 0.89
Defence rating (Oldham / Sheffield Wednesday)
0.86 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.1% 13.0% 8.1% 3.0% 1.1% 1 10.6% 14.7% 7.6% 2.8% 1.0% 2 5.6% 6.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Oldham goals. Columns: Sheffield Wednesday goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Oldham27%3.71
Draw27%3.68
Sheffield Wednesday46%2.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.94
Under 2.566%1.52
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.36
No58%1.74
Double chance1X (Oldham or draw)54%1.85
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Sheffield Wednesday)73%1.37
Handicap -1Sheffield Wednesday win by 2+17%6.04
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday recent form

Oldham 2W 2D 2L
Sheffield Wednesday 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Oldham lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 M. Hudson
  2. 6 E. Monthe
  3. 5 D. Daniels
  4. 16 W. Sutton
  5. 3 J. Robson
  6. 4 T. Pett
  7. 8 O. Norburn
  8. 2 G. Scott-Morriss
  9. 14 N. Chilvers
  10. 10 C. Kavanagh
  11. 9 M. Fondop-Talum

Bench: F. Fawunmi, Z. Tahir, E. Nevitt, J. Hawkes, L. Temple, O. Hammond

Sheffield Wednesday lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 13 A. Maynard-Brewer
  2. 2 L. Palmer
  3. 4 Ricardo
  4. 5 D. Bernard
  5. 23 J. Liongola
  6. 10 B. Bannan
  7. 18 Jaden Heskey
  8. 7 Y. Valery
  9. 50 D. Keillor-Dunn
  10. 9 J. Lowe
  11. 8 C. Slattery

Bench: M. Lowe, S. Fusire, W. Grainger, K. Morrison, G. Otegbayo, H. Gray, C. Trueman, Ernie Weaver, Jarvis Thornton

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Oldham 1 · draws 0 · Sheffield Wednesday 3.

OldhamDrawsSheffield Wednesday
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-01Oldham4-0Sheffield WednesdayFriendlies Clubs
2012-08-13Oldham2-4Sheffield WednesdayLeague Cup
2012-04-09Sheffield Wednesday3-0OldhamLeague One
2011-12-10Oldham0-2Sheffield WednesdayLeague One

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match