Northampton vs Oldham preview
Northampton faces Oldham with a 42% chance of winning compared to Oldham's 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 17% of the time according to our model. Northampton's expected goals stand at 1.16, while Oldham's is lower at 0.71.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score is only at 36%, and Over 2.5 goals is just 29%. Recent form shows Northampton with a mixed record of D-W-L-W-D-L, while Oldham has struggled, recording L-D-L-W-D-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Northampton vs Oldham: model vs market
| Source | Northampton | Draw | Oldham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 33% | 21% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Published | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.16 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Northampton vs Oldham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Northampton, 25 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 2.68 | 2.30 | -0.38 |
| Draw | 3.09 | 3.20 | +0.11 |
| Oldham | 2.61 | 3.08 | +0.46 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Northampton and Oldham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.87
- Attack rating (Northampton / Oldham)
- 0.74 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Northampton / Oldham)
- 0.73 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Northampton vs Oldham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Northampton goals. Columns: Oldham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Northampton vs Oldham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Northampton vs Oldham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Oldham | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.77 |
| No | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Northampton or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Oldham) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Northampton win by 2+ | 20% | 4.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Northampton and Oldham recent form
Northampton
2W 2D 2L
Oldham
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Northampton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oldham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Northampton at home only, Oldham away only.
Northampton vs Oldham head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Northampton 4 · draws 2 · Oldham 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Oldham | 3-1 | Northampton | England FA Cup |
| 2022-04-15 | Oldham | 0-2 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2021-11-23 | Northampton | 2-1 | Oldham | League Two |
| 2019-11-02 | Oldham | 2-2 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2019-05-04 | Oldham | 2-5 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2018-10-27 | Northampton | 2-1 | Oldham | League Two |
| 2018-05-05 | Northampton | 2-2 | Oldham | League One |
| 2017-12-09 | Oldham | 5-1 | Northampton | League One |
| 2017-02-28 | Northampton | 1-2 | Oldham | League One |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Barnet vs York 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Northampton, previous: Accrington ST vs Northampton: odds and pick
- Northampton, next: York – Northampton, 2026-11-07
- Oldham, previous: Oldham vs Crawley Town prediction
- Oldham, next: Oldham – Sheffield Wednesday, 2026-11-08