League Two · Matchday 9Postponed

Northampton vs Oldham

· Sixfields Stadium, Northampton

Alin prediction Oldham to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NorthamptonDrawOldham

Northampton vs Oldham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNorthamptonDrawOldham
Model32%32%36%
Market35%30%35%
Published34%30%35%
Edge-3%+3%+1%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Northampton vs Oldham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Oldham, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.61Now 2.63 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Northampton2.682.63-0.05
Draw3.093.12+0.03
Oldham2.612.63+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Northampton and Oldham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Northampton
1.11Oldham
Total expected goals
2.15
Attack rating (Northampton / Oldham)
0.56 / 0.89
Defence rating (Northampton / Oldham)
1.07 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Northampton vs Oldham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.0% 11.7% 7.2% 2.7% 0.9% 1 10.8% 14.8% 7.5% 2.8% 1.0% 2 6.3% 7.0% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 3 2.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Northampton goals. Columns: Oldham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Northampton vs Oldham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Northampton vs Oldham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Northampton34%2.91
Draw30%3.30
Oldham35%2.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.75
Under 2.564%1.57
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.24
No55%1.81
Double chance1X (Northampton or draw)65%1.55
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Oldham)66%1.52
Handicap -1Oldham win by 2+15%6.61
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Northampton and Oldham recent form

Northampton 1W 2D 3L
Oldham 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Northampton at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Oldham away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Northampton at home only, Oldham away only.

Northampton vs Oldham head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Northampton 4 · draws 2 · Oldham 3.

NorthamptonDrawsOldham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-11-01Oldham3-1NorthamptonEngland FA Cup
2022-04-15Oldham0-2NorthamptonLeague Two
2021-11-23Northampton2-1OldhamLeague Two
2019-11-02Oldham2-2NorthamptonLeague Two
2019-05-04Oldham2-5NorthamptonLeague Two
2018-10-27Northampton2-1OldhamLeague Two
2018-05-05Northampton2-2OldhamLeague One
2017-12-09Oldham5-1NorthamptonLeague One
2017-02-28Northampton1-2OldhamLeague One

Other Matchday 9 fixtures