Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

York vs Northampton

· York`s LNER Community Stadium, York

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was York to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
YorkDrawNorthampton

York vs Northampton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceYorkDrawNorthampton
Model39%33%28%
Market52%26%23%
Published48%28%24%
Edge-3%+2%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

York vs Northampton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on York, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.80Now 1.81 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
York1.801.81+0.01
Draw3.573.62+0.05
Northampton4.124.12+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

York and Northampton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12York
0.91Northampton
Total expected goals
2.03
Attack rating (York / Northampton)
0.97 / 0.60
Defence rating (York / Northampton)
1.03 / 0.63

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

York vs Northampton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.5% 10.7% 5.5% 1.7% 0.5% 1 13.3% 14.7% 6.1% 1.9% 0.5% 2 8.2% 7.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 3 3.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: York goals. Columns: Northampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

York vs Northampton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for York vs Northampton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2York48%2.07
Draw28%3.63
Northampton24%4.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.02
Under 2.567%1.49
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.41
No58%1.71
Double chance1X (York or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Northampton)52%1.94
Handicap -1York win by 2+17%6.04
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

York and Northampton recent form

York 1W 3D 2L
Northampton 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

York lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Alfie Shane McNally
  2. 3 M. Kitching
  3. 5 Z. Johnson
  4. 2 R. Fallowfield
  5. 12 H. Boyes
  6. 16 A. Read
  7. 8 A. Hunt
  8. 23 J. Felix
  9. 28 O. Banks
  10. 21 H. Boateng
  11. 10 O. Pearce

Bench: Z. Medley, J. Grey, J. Stones, F. Maguire, J. King, J. Malcolm, A. Newby, G. Sykes-Kenworthy, J. Hunt

Northampton lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Z. Jeacock
  2. 35 M. Dyche
  3. 6 E. Moore
  4. 5 J. Guthrie
  5. 3 J. Maxwell
  6. 16 J. Wormleighton
  7. 8 L. Evans
  8. 14 T. Fornah
  9. 19 O. Dale
  10. 10 E. List
  11. 9 Matthew Warhurst

Bench: K. Simon-Swyer, C. McCarthy, L. Briggs, Joshua Alan Powell, C. Lemonheigh-Evans, S. Chambers, H. Saunders

York vs Northampton head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: York 3 · draws 3 · Northampton 3.

YorkDrawsNorthampton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-10-10York1-1NorthamptonLeague Two
2016-02-23York1-2NorthamptonLeague Two
2016-02-06Northampton2-0YorkLeague Two
2015-02-21Northampton3-0YorkLeague Two
2014-08-16York1-1NorthamptonLeague Two
2014-01-11Northampton0-2YorkLeague Two
2013-08-03York1-0NorthamptonLeague Two
2013-04-13Northampton0-2YorkLeague Two
2012-11-06York1-1NorthamptonLeague Two

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match