Updated

League Two · Matchday 15

Salford City vs Northampton

· Moor Lane, Salford

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Salford City to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Salford CityDrawNorthampton

Salford City vs Northampton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSalford CityDrawNorthampton
Model63%25%12%
Market58%24%17%
Published60%25%16%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.61.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Salford City vs Northampton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Salford City, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 1.63Now 1.58 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Salford City1.631.58-0.04
Draw3.753.80+0.05
Northampton5.005.40+0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Salford City and Northampton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Salford City
0.61Northampton
Total expected goals
2.31
Attack rating (Salford City / Northampton)
1.29 / 0.62
Defence rating (Salford City / Northampton)
0.84 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Salford City vs Northampton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 5.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1 15.9% 11.3% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.4% 8.7% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 3 8.2% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 5.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Salford City goals. Columns: Northampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Salford City vs Northampton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
38%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Salford City vs Northampton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Salford City60%1.68
Draw25%4.07
Northampton16%6.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.46
Under 2.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes38%2.61
No62%1.62
Double chance1X (Salford City or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Northampton)40%2.47
Handicap -1Salford City win by 2+37%2.72
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Salford City and Northampton recent form

Salford City 5W 0D 1L
Northampton 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Salford City at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-0-1
Win rate
86%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
0.57
Clean sheets
3 of 7
  • They have won 10 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.

Northampton away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-2
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Salford City at home only, Northampton away only.

Expected lineups

Salford City lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 W. Norris
  2. 29 L. Garbutt
  3. 4 W. Aimson
  4. 17 D. Scarr
  5. 22 A. Oluwo
  6. 14 A. Odoh
  7. 44 B. Sarpong-Wiredu
  8. 21 K. Cesay
  9. 18 M. Butcher
  10. 23 D. Udoh
  11. 9 M. Langstaff

Bench: J. Powell, B. Woodburn, B. Cooper, R. Graydon, O. Turton, T. Allen, L. Burge

Northampton lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 34 R. Fitzsimons
  2. 3 J. Maxwell
  3. 5 J. Guthrie
  4. 6 E. Moore
  5. 15 C. McCarthy
  6. 19 O. Dale
  7. 8 L. Evans
  8. 24 C. Lemonheigh-Evans
  9. 16 J. Wormleighton
  10. 9 Matthew Warhurst
  11. 4 J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh

Bench: E. List, N. Opoku, L. Briggs, Joshua Alan Powell, J. Dadge, H. Saunders, M. Dyche

Salford City vs Northampton head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Salford City 2 · draws 1 · Northampton 3.

Salford CityDrawsNorthampton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-01-07Salford City2-1NorthamptonLeague Two
2022-10-08Northampton0-1Salford CityLeague Two
2022-01-29Northampton1-0Salford CityLeague Two
2021-09-25Salford City2-2NorthamptonLeague Two
2020-01-11Salford City1-2NorthamptonLeague Two
2019-10-19Northampton2-0Salford CityLeague Two

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match