Carlisle vs Salford City: model vs market
| Source | Carlisle | Draw | Salford City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Carlisle vs Salford City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Salford City, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 2.83 | 2.76 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.65 | +0.00 |
| Salford City | 2.25 | 2.27 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Carlisle and Salford City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Carlisle / Salford City)
- 1.17 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Carlisle / Salford City)
- 1.17 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Carlisle vs Salford City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Carlisle goals. Columns: Salford City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Carlisle vs Salford City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Carlisle vs Salford City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carlisle | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Salford City | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Carlisle or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Salford City) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Salford City win by 2+ | 29% | 3.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Carlisle and Salford City recent form
Carlisle
3W 0D 2L
Salford City
6W 0D 0L
Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Carlisle at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Carlisle at home only, Salford City away only.
Expected lineups
Carlisle lineup · 3-5-2
- 16 A. Mair
- 15 B. Nicholson
- 5 M. Feeney
- 40 T. Mullarkey
- 12 R. Galvin
- 8 C. Whelan
- 32 C. Camps
- 17 L. Duru
- 10 R. Linney
- 7 D. Ajiboye
Bench: A. Desbois, K. Richardson, G. Kelly, E. Embleton, J. Williams, L. Armstrong
Salford City lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 26 L. Burge
- 24 T. Allen
- 15 B. Cooper
- 22 A. Oluwo
- 29 L. Garbutt
- 18 M. Butcher
- 16 E. Bonds
- 20 O. Turton
- 23 D. Udoh
- 7 B. Woodburn
- 19 R. Graydon
Bench: W. Norris, N. Asiimwe, Zachariah Olumide Awe, W. Aimson, M. Langstaff, A. Odoh, D. Scarr, K. Cesay
Carlisle vs Salford City head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Carlisle 4 · draws 2 · Salford City 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Carlisle | 0-2 | Salford City | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-05-03 | Carlisle | 2-2 | Salford City | League Two |
| 2024-11-09 | Salford City | 0-1 | Carlisle | League Two |
| 2023-04-29 | Carlisle | 2-3 | Salford City | League Two |
| 2022-11-19 | Salford City | 1-4 | Carlisle | League Two |
| 2022-02-01 | Salford City | 2-1 | Carlisle | League Two |
| 2021-09-04 | Carlisle | 2-1 | Salford City | League Two |
| 2021-02-20 | Salford City | 1-1 | Carlisle | League Two |
| 2020-12-02 | Carlisle | 2-1 | Salford City | League Two |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page 2026-11-06
- Oxford City v Leicester — match page 2026-11-06
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2026-11-07
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Oxford United vs Stevenage 2026-11-07
- Bradford v Marine — match page 2026-11-07
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Carlisle, next: York – Carlisle, 2026-12-05
- Salford City, next: Salford City v Northampton analysis