Updated

League Two · Matchday 15

Shrewsbury vs Oldham

· New Meadow, Shrewsbury

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Shrewsbury to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ShrewsburyDrawOldham

Shrewsbury vs Oldham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceShrewsburyDrawOldham
Model44%27%28%
Market37%28%35%
Published39%28%33%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.21.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Shrewsbury vs Oldham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Shrewsbury, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.64Now 2.51 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Shrewsbury2.642.51-0.13
Draw3.283.29+0.01
Oldham2.492.70+0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Shrewsbury and Oldham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.57Shrewsbury
1.21Oldham
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Shrewsbury / Oldham)
1.12 / 0.88
Defence rating (Shrewsbury / Oldham)
1.16 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shrewsbury vs Oldham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 6.4% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 1 8.6% 13.0% 7.1% 2.9% 1.1% 2 7.6% 9.2% 5.6% 2.3% 0.9% 3 4.0% 4.8% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.2% 2.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Shrewsbury goals. Columns: Oldham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shrewsbury vs Oldham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shrewsbury vs Oldham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Shrewsbury39%2.57
Draw28%3.56
Oldham33%3.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Shrewsbury or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Oldham)61%1.64
Handicap -1Shrewsbury win by 2+23%4.32
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Shrewsbury and Oldham recent form

Shrewsbury 3W 1D 2L
Oldham 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Shrewsbury at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-3
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.14
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
3 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.

Oldham away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-4
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
0.57
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Shrewsbury at home only, Oldham away only.

Expected lineups

Shrewsbury lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 William Michael Brook
  2. 3 J. Ruffels
  3. 5 W. Boyle
  4. 6 S. Stubbs
  5. 11 K. Berkoe
  6. 7 J. Turner-Cooke
  7. 10 T. Sang
  8. 2 L. Hoole
  9. 20 M. Golding
  10. 13 J. Davison
  11. 9 G. Lloyd

Bench: Isaac Andrew Fletcher, C. Stewart, I. Lee, L. Sousa, J. Gbode

Oldham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Hudson
  2. 3 J. Robson
  3. 6 E. Monthe
  4. 5 D. Daniels
  5. 16 W. Sutton
  6. 4 T. Pett
  7. 8 O. Norburn
  8. 2 G. Scott-Morriss
  9. 10 C. Kavanagh
  10. 30 Thomas Daniel Hill
  11. 9 M. Fondop-Talum

Bench: K. Appiah-Forson, N. Chilvers, F. Fawunmi, E. Nevitt, J. Hawkes, L. Temple

Shrewsbury vs Oldham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Shrewsbury 7 · draws 1 · Oldham 2.

ShrewsburyDrawsOldham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Shrewsbury1-0OldhamLeague Two
2025-10-25Oldham2-2ShrewsburyLeague Two
2024-08-03Oldham1-0ShrewsburyFriendlies Clubs
2018-01-23Shrewsbury2-1OldhamEFL Trophy
2018-01-01Shrewsbury1-0OldhamLeague One
2017-09-16Oldham1-2ShrewsburyLeague One
2017-01-21Shrewsbury1-0OldhamLeague One
2016-09-03Oldham2-3ShrewsburyLeague One
2016-01-26Shrewsbury0-1OldhamLeague One
2015-09-01Shrewsbury2-0OldhamEFL Trophy

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match