Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury

· Silverlake Stadium, Eastleigh

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Shrewsbury to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
EastleighDrawShrewsbury

Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEastleighDrawShrewsbury
Model46%26%28%
Market26%26%47%
Published31%26%43%
Edge+5%0%-5%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Shrewsbury, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.96Now 1.96 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Eastleigh3.513.50-0.01
Draw3.553.55+0.00
Shrewsbury1.961.96+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Eastleigh and Shrewsbury expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68Eastleigh
1.28Shrewsbury
Total expected goals
2.96
Attack rating (Eastleigh / Shrewsbury)
0.92 / 0.88
Defence rating (Eastleigh / Shrewsbury)
0.98 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 5.5% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 1 7.6% 12.2% 7.1% 3.0% 1.3% 2 7.3% 9.4% 6.0% 2.6% 1.1% 3 4.1% 5.3% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 2.5% 3.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Eastleigh goals. Columns: Shrewsbury goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Eastleigh31%3.20
Draw26%3.83
Shrewsbury43%2.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.76
Under 2.543%2.32
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.50
Double chance1X (Eastleigh or draw)57%1.74
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Shrewsbury)69%1.46
Handicap -1Shrewsbury win by 2+12%8.06
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Eastleigh and Shrewsbury recent form

Eastleigh 2W 0D 2L
Shrewsbury 3W 1D 2L

Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Eastleigh at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Eastleigh at home only, Shrewsbury away only.

Expected lineups

Eastleigh lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 N. Townsend
  2. 27 Reece Johnson
  3. 5 I. Bakare
  4. 2 J. Caprice
  5. 7 Max Dickov
  6. 32 J. Williams
  7. 24 J. Cousins
  8. 17 D. Rankine
  9. 12 O. Hawkins
  10. 11 A. Blair

Bench: Harry Sidwell, W. Randall-Hurren, Joshua Jeffries, Hady Ghandour

Shrewsbury lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 William Michael Brook
  2. 3 J. Ruffels
  3. 5 W. Boyle
  4. 6 S. Stubbs
  5. 11 K. Berkoe
  6. 10 T. Sang
  7. 7 J. Turner-Cooke
  8. 2 L. Hoole
  9. 18 K. M. Brown
  10. 13 J. Davison
  11. 9 G. Lloyd

Bench: Isaac Andrew Fletcher, Arkelle Nicholas Cecil Jude-Boyd, M. Golding, I. Lee, L. Sousa, J. Gbode, J. Thompson-McKenzie

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match