Updated

League Two · Matchday 15Postponed

Walsall vs Barnet

· Bescot Stadium, Walsall

Alin prediction Barnet to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WalsallDrawBarnet
  • WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Barnet is the favourite, not a value bet.

Walsall vs Barnet: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWalsallDrawBarnet
Model34%25%41%
Market33%27%40%
Published33%26%41%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Walsall vs Barnet odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Barnet, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.38Now 2.30 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Walsall2.642.80+0.16
Draw3.503.50+0.00
Barnet2.382.30-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Walsall and Barnet expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56Walsall
1.72Barnet
Total expected goals
3.29
Attack rating (Walsall / Barnet)
1.16 / 1.47
Defence rating (Walsall / Barnet)
1.00 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Walsall vs Barnet score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 5.4% 5.6% 3.2% 2.0% 1 4.8% 11.1% 8.7% 5.0% 3.2% 2 4.6% 7.9% 6.8% 3.9% 2.5% 3 2.4% 4.1% 3.5% 2.0% 1.3% 4+ 1.3% 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.7%

Rows: Walsall goals. Columns: Barnet goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Walsall vs Barnet goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Walsall vs Barnet

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Walsall33%3.00
Draw26%3.82
Barnet41%2.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.76
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.52
No34%2.93
Double chance1X (Walsall or draw)59%1.68
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Barnet)67%1.50
Handicap -1Barnet win by 2+22%4.57
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Walsall and Barnet recent form

Walsall 2W 2D 2L
Barnet 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Walsall at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
4 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.

Barnet away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.17
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Walsall at home only, Barnet away only.

Walsall vs Barnet head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Walsall 1 · draws 0 · Barnet 1.

WalsallDrawsBarnet
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-07Walsall1-3BarnetLeague Two
2025-08-16Barnet1-2WalsallLeague Two

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match