Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Barnet vs Tranmere

· The Hive Stadium, London

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Barnet to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BarnetDrawTranmere

Barnet vs Tranmere: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBarnetDrawTranmere
Model49%26%25%
Market55%24%21%
Published54%24%22%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.15.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Barnet vs Tranmere odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Barnet, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.66Now 1.69 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Barnet1.661.69+0.03
Draw3.993.92-0.07
Tranmere4.604.45-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Barnet and Tranmere expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Barnet
1.15Tranmere
Total expected goals
2.85
Attack rating (Barnet / Tranmere)
1.15 / 0.89
Defence rating (Barnet / Tranmere)
0.87 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Barnet vs Tranmere score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 5.5% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5% 1 8.7% 12.4% 6.5% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.4% 9.6% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.7% 5.5% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 3.0% 3.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Barnet goals. Columns: Tranmere goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Barnet vs Tranmere goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Barnet vs Tranmere

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Barnet54%1.86
Draw24%4.10
Tranmere22%4.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.84
Under 2.546%2.19
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.33
Double chance1X (Barnet or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Tranmere)46%2.16
Handicap -1Barnet win by 2+27%3.69
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Barnet and Tranmere recent form

Barnet 3W 2D 1L
Tranmere 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Barnet lineup

  1. 5 A. Senior
  2. 14 B. Comley
  3. 8 C. Lakin
  4. 4 D. Collinge
  5. 11 I. Kanu
  6. 9 J. Maskell
  7. 23 J. Reeves
  8. 13 M. Cox
  9. 25 N. Tavares
  10. 3 R. Crichlow-Noble

Bench: T. Ashby-Hammond, Z. Williams, T. Knowles, N. Ofoborh, D. Ajayi, K. Smith, M. Kenlock, I. Noel-Williams, Aaron Liwala-Lukizalamu

Tranmere lineup

  1. 7 Charlie Jay Whitaker
  2. 29 D. Jones
  3. 9 J. Ironside
  4. 4 J. Turnbull
  5. 1 L. McGee
  6. 22 L. O'Connor
  7. 5 N. Smith
  8. 11 T. Conlon
  9. 10 T. Ince
  10. 6 W. Vaulks

Bench: J. Senior, J. Slater, H. Male, B. Faulkner, C. Baker-Richardson, Charlie Veevers, David Kamara, G. Nevett, R. Watson

Barnet vs Tranmere head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Barnet 3 · draws 0 · Tranmere 0.

BarnetDrawsTranmere
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-10-17Tranmere1-2BarnetLeague Two
2026-01-27Barnet1-0TranmereLeague Two
2025-10-11Tranmere0-2BarnetLeague Two

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match