Updated

League Two · Matchday 15

Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere

· Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Fleetwood Town to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Fleetwood TownDrawTranmere

Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFleetwood TownDrawTranmere
Model45%27%28%
Market49%26%25%
Published48%27%26%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.25.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fleetwood Town, 24 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.02Now 1.91 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fleetwood Town2.021.91-0.11
Draw3.423.54+0.12
Tranmere3.373.80+0.43

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fleetwood Town and Tranmere expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Fleetwood Town
1.25Tranmere
Total expected goals
2.86
Attack rating (Fleetwood Town / Tranmere)
1.05 / 0.95
Defence rating (Fleetwood Town / Tranmere)
1.11 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 6.0% 4.5% 1.9% 0.8% 1 8.1% 12.7% 7.2% 3.0% 1.2% 2 7.4% 9.3% 5.8% 2.4% 1.0% 3 4.0% 5.0% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 2.3% 2.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Fleetwood Town goals. Columns: Tranmere goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fleetwood Town48%2.09
Draw27%3.77
Tranmere26%3.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.84
Under 2.546%2.20
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.39
Double chance1X (Fleetwood Town or draw)74%1.34
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Tranmere)52%1.92
Handicap -1Fleetwood Town win by 2+24%4.23
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fleetwood Town and Tranmere recent form

Fleetwood Town 2W 1D 3L
Tranmere 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fleetwood Town at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-1
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
0.71
Clean sheets
3 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tranmere away

Record (W-D-L)
1-4-2
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fleetwood Town at home only, Tranmere away only.

Expected lineups

Fleetwood Town lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 1 J. Lynch
  2. 5 F. Potter
  3. 16 Conor Haughey
  4. 26 S. Rooney
  5. 4 H. Neal
  6. 24 Jake Thomas Batty
  7. 10 M. Helm
  8. 27 C. McLean
  9. 6 R. Bennett
  10. 20 A. Loupalo-Bi
  11. 19 R. Coughlan

Bench: D. Andrew, A. Cannon, W. Davies, A. Murphy, C. Evans, J. Pradic, J. Robertson

Tranmere lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 L. McGee
  2. 30 G. Nevett
  3. 16 B. Faulkner
  4. 22 L. O'Connor
  5. 3 J. Slater
  6. 11 T. Conlon
  7. 6 W. Vaulks
  8. 2 J. Senior
  9. 7 Charlie Jay Whitaker
  10. 9 J. Ironside
  11. 29 D. Jones

Bench: N. Smith, H. Male, O. Scott, Charlie Veevers, David Kamara, J. Plant, R. Watson

Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Fleetwood Town 3 · draws 4 · Tranmere 2.

Fleetwood TownDrawsTranmere
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-14Fleetwood Town0-0TranmereLeague Two
2025-12-26Tranmere1-0Fleetwood TownLeague Two
2025-12-02Tranmere0-3Fleetwood TownEFL Trophy
2025-03-22Fleetwood Town0-0TranmereLeague Two
2025-02-11Tranmere0-0Fleetwood TownLeague Two
2023-09-05Fleetwood Town2-0TranmereEFL Trophy
2023-07-15Tranmere4-1Fleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs
2022-07-02Fleetwood Town2-2TranmereFriendlies Clubs
2019-11-23Fleetwood Town2-1TranmereLeague One

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match