Updated

League Two · Matchday 15

Swindon Town vs Grimsby

· County Ground, Swindon

Full time1 – 4

Alin prediction was Grimsby to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Swindon TownDrawGrimsby

Swindon Town vs Grimsby: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSwindon TownDrawGrimsby
Model33%26%41%
Market29%25%46%
Published30%25%45%
Edge+1%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Swindon Town vs Grimsby odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Grimsby, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.01Now 2.02 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Swindon Town3.243.25+0.01
Draw3.653.70+0.05
Grimsby2.012.02+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Swindon Town and Grimsby expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48Swindon Town
1.66Grimsby
Total expected goals
3.14
Attack rating (Swindon Town / Grimsby)
0.88 / 1.48
Defence rating (Swindon Town / Grimsby)
0.95 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Swindon Town vs Grimsby score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 6.1% 6.0% 3.3% 2.0% 1 5.3% 11.7% 8.8% 4.9% 3.0% 2 4.7% 7.9% 6.5% 3.6% 2.2% 3 2.3% 3.9% 3.2% 1.8% 1.1% 4+ 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5%

Rows: Swindon Town goals. Columns: Grimsby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Swindon Town vs Grimsby goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Swindon Town vs Grimsby

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Swindon Town30%3.36
Draw25%3.95
Grimsby45%2.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.54
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.74
Double chance1X (Swindon Town or draw)55%1.82
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Grimsby)70%1.42
Handicap -1Grimsby win by 2+22%4.60
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Swindon Town and Grimsby recent form

Swindon Town 2W 2D 2L
Grimsby 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Swindon Town at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-1
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.71
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
  • 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Grimsby away

Record (W-D-L)
1-4-2
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Swindon Town at home only, Grimsby away only.

Expected lineups

Swindon Town lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 C. Ripley
  2. 26 D. Butler
  3. 21 K. Majekodunmi
  4. 6 J. Ball
  5. 2 M. Clark
  6. 25 J. Thomson
  7. 27 A. Munda
  8. 33 Joel McGregor
  9. 24 M. Virtue-Thick
  10. 19 J. Snowdon
  11. 23 A. Drinan

Bench: Lewis Moore Ward, J. Debayo, O. Palmer, A. Hackford, B. Kirkman, L. Millard

Grimsby lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 31 C. Pym
  2. 17 C. McJannet
  3. 8 Cian Doyle
  4. 5 H. Rodgers
  5. 3 J. Sweeney
  6. 29 M. Shelton
  7. 7 J. Walker
  8. 12 J. Foulkes
  9. 10 S. Finch
  10. 39 A. Cook
  11. 9 Iwan Morgan

Bench: H. Cartwright, Ryley Reynolds, J. Amaluzor, J. Andrews, H. Brown, F. Cartwright, C. Vernam

Swindon Town vs Grimsby head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Swindon Town 7 · draws 1 · Grimsby 2.

Swindon TownDrawsGrimsby
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-25Grimsby4-0Swindon TownLeague Two
2025-11-22Swindon Town2-2GrimsbyLeague Two
2025-04-18Grimsby0-4Swindon TownLeague Two
2024-12-21Swindon Town3-1GrimsbyLeague Two
2024-04-20Grimsby2-0Swindon TownLeague Two
2023-09-30Swindon Town2-1GrimsbyLeague Two
2023-01-14Swindon Town5-0GrimsbyLeague Two
2022-09-24Grimsby1-2Swindon TownLeague Two
2020-02-22Swindon Town3-1GrimsbyLeague Two
2019-12-07Grimsby0-3Swindon TownLeague Two

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match