Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby

· Marston Road, Stafford

Full time3 – 3

Alin prediction was Grimsby to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Stafford RangersDrawGrimsby

Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStafford RangersDrawGrimsby
Model55%24%21%
Market13%18%69%
Published24%20%57%
Edge+10%+1%-12%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Stafford Rangers and Grimsby expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.97Stafford Rangers
1.17Grimsby
Total expected goals
3.14
Attack rating (Stafford Rangers / Grimsby)
1.18 / 1.15
Defence rating (Stafford Rangers / Grimsby)
0.69 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 4.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 1 7.5% 11.0% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 2 8.4% 9.8% 5.8% 2.2% 0.8% 3 5.5% 6.5% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 4.3% 5.0% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4%

Rows: Stafford Rangers goals. Columns: Grimsby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Stafford Rangers24%4.25
Draw20%5.08
Grimsby57%1.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.55
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.66
No40%2.53
Double chance1X (Stafford Rangers or draw)43%2.31
12 (either side)80%1.24
X2 (draw or Grimsby)76%1.31
Handicap -1Grimsby win by 2+9%11.54
Push (exactly one goal)13%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Stafford Rangers and Grimsby recent form

Stafford Rangers 4W 2D 0L
Grimsby 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Stafford Rangers at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Stafford Rangers at home only, Grimsby away only.

Expected lineups

Grimsby lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 H. Cartwright
  2. 17 C. McJannet
  3. 2 M. Kacurri
  4. 5 H. Rodgers
  5. 30 C. Vernam
  6. 28 F. Cartwright
  7. 15 G. Turi
  8. 12 J. Foulkes
  9. 29 M. Shelton
  10. 19 J. Andrews
  11. 9 Iwan Morgan

Bench: J. Sweeney, J. Walker, Cian Doyle, S. Finch, Ryley Reynolds, J. Amaluzor, H. Brown, C. Pym, A. Cook

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match