Newport County vs Swindon Town preview
Newport County faces Swindon Town with a 53% chance of winning compared to Swindon’s 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs with a 12% probability. Newport has shown strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Swindon has 2 wins in the same period.
However, the match could deviate from this forecast. Both teams have a nearly equal chance of scoring, with 49% for both teams to score and 46% for Over 2.5 goals. Swindon Town has won both of their last two encounters against Newport, which could influence the outcome. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Newport County vs Swindon Town: model vs market
| Source | Newport County | Draw | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Newport County and Swindon Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Newport County / Swindon Town)
- 1.19 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Newport County / Swindon Town)
- 0.87 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Newport County vs Swindon Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Newport County goals. Columns: Swindon Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Newport County vs Swindon Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Newport County vs Swindon Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Swindon Town | 20% | 5.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.06 |
| No | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Newport County or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Swindon Town) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newport County win by 2+ | 29% | 3.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Newport County and Swindon Town recent form
Newport County
3W 2D 1L
Swindon Town
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Newport County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-0
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swindon Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Newport County at home only, Swindon Town away only.
Newport County vs Swindon Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Newport County 0 · draws 0 · Swindon Town 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Swindon Town | 2-0 | Newport County | League Two |
| 2025-10-04 | Newport County | 0-1 | Swindon Town | League Two |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
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- Northampton v Rochdale — match page 2026-11-21
- Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Oldham vs Exeter City 2026-11-21
- Accrington ST v Salford City — match page 2026-11-21
- Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Grimsby vs Rotherham 2026-11-21
- Barnet v Port Vale — match page 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Newport County, previous: Crewe – Newport County, 2026-11-14
- Newport County, next: Rochdale v Newport County analysis
- Swindon Town, previous: Swindon Town vs Grimsby: odds and pick