Northampton vs Rochdale preview
In the League Two match between Northampton and Rochdale, the 1X2 probabilities show Northampton at 37%, Rochdale at 33%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score stands at 50%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 43%.
Northampton's expected goals are 1.24, slightly higher than Rochdale's 1.16. Recent form indicates Northampton has two losses and three mixed results, while Rochdale has one win and four mixed results. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. If either team improves their scoring efficiency, it could impact the predicted scoreline.
Northampton vs Rochdale: model vs market
| Source | Northampton | Draw | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Northampton and Rochdale expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Northampton / Rochdale)
- 0.62 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Northampton / Rochdale)
- 0.93 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Northampton vs Rochdale score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Northampton goals. Columns: Rochdale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Northampton vs Rochdale goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Northampton vs Rochdale
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 37% | 2.73 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Rochdale | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Northampton or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Rochdale) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Northampton win by 2+ | 16% | 6.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Northampton and Rochdale recent form
Northampton
2W 1D 3L
Rochdale
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Northampton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rochdale away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Northampton at home only, Rochdale away only.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
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- Oldham vs Exeter City 2026-11-21
- Accrington ST v Salford City — match page 2026-11-21
- Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Grimsby vs Rotherham 2026-11-21
- Barnet v Port Vale — match page 2026-11-21
- Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Tranmere vs Colchester 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Northampton, previous: Salford City v Northampton analysis
- Rochdale, previous: Rochdale vs York: odds and pick
- Rochdale, next: Rochdale v Newport County analysis