Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Newport County vs Walsall

· Rodney Parade, Newport

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Newport County to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Newport CountyDrawWalsall

Newport County vs Walsall: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNewport CountyDrawWalsall
Model36%31%33%
Market37%28%35%
Published37%28%35%
Edge0%+1%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Newport County vs Walsall odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Newport County, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 2.52Now 2.50 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Newport County2.522.50-0.02
Draw3.333.37+0.04
Walsall2.642.62-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Newport County and Walsall expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16Newport County
1.10Walsall
Total expected goals
2.26
Attack rating (Newport County / Walsall)
0.90 / 1.00
Defence rating (Newport County / Walsall)
0.74 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Newport County vs Walsall score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.8% 10.2% 6.3% 2.3% 0.8% 1 10.8% 14.7% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 7.0% 7.7% 4.2% 1.6% 0.5% 3 2.7% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Newport County goals. Columns: Walsall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Newport County vs Walsall goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Newport County vs Walsall

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Newport County37%2.72
Draw28%3.51
Walsall35%2.88
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.55
Under 2.561%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.12
No53%1.89
Double chance1X (Newport County or draw)65%1.53
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Walsall)63%1.58
Handicap -1Newport County win by 2+16%6.45
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Newport County and Walsall recent form

Newport County 2W 3D 1L
Walsall 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Newport County lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Wright
  2. 3 T. Davies
  3. 34 D. Sassi
  4. 5 L. Jenkins
  5. 22 C. Norman
  6. 6 C. Brennan
  7. 8 M. Smith
  8. 20 Y. Bamba
  9. 10 H. Biggins
  10. 23 M. Adu-Poku
  11. 28 K. Etete

Bench: C. Evans, K. Evans, S. Gwengwe, J. Crole, Joe Thomas, Alfie Merritt, A. Lewis, G. Garner, J. Turner

Walsall lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Ward
  2. 3 M. Hancock
  3. 26 R. Leak
  4. 25 D. Skura
  5. 22 E. Ahui
  6. 8 C. Crew
  7. 6 S. Sprangler
  8. 17 Courtney Clarke
  9. 9 A. Dallas
  10. 10 L. Simper
  11. 19 A. Pressley

Bench: H. Burke, Taione Richard Evumena Sodje, R. Smith, Isaac Moore, Roman Dixon, J. Furlong, Tom Wooster, A. Adomah, R. Sjordesma

Newport County vs Walsall head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Newport County 2 · draws 4 · Walsall 4.

Newport CountyDrawsWalsall
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Walsall2-1Newport CountyLeague Two
2025-11-08Newport County2-4WalsallLeague Two
2025-04-21Newport County0-0WalsallLeague Two
2024-12-29Walsall2-0Newport CountyLeague Two
2024-02-10Walsall0-3Newport CountyLeague Two
2023-10-20Newport County3-3WalsallLeague Two
2023-02-18Walsall1-1Newport CountyLeague Two
2022-08-06Newport County0-1WalsallLeague Two
2022-01-01Walsall3-3Newport CountyLeague Two
2021-09-18Newport County2-1WalsallLeague Two

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match