Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Plymouth vs Alvechurch

· Home Park, Plymouth

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Plymouth to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PlymouthDrawAlvechurch

Plymouth vs Alvechurch: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePlymouthDrawAlvechurch
Model26%25%48%
Market79%14%8%
Published65%17%18%
Edge-13%+3%+10%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Plymouth vs Alvechurch odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Plymouth, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.20Now 1.18 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Plymouth1.201.18-0.02
Draw6.456.75+0.30
Alvechurch11.3311.97+0.64

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Plymouth and Alvechurch expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Plymouth
1.79Alvechurch
Total expected goals
3.07
Attack rating (Plymouth / Alvechurch)
0.89 / 1.34
Defence rating (Plymouth / Alvechurch)
0.90 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Plymouth vs Alvechurch score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 7.3% 7.5% 4.5% 3.0% 1 4.9% 11.7% 9.5% 5.7% 3.8% 2 3.8% 6.8% 6.1% 3.6% 2.5% 3 1.6% 2.9% 2.6% 1.6% 1.0% 4+ 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Plymouth goals. Columns: Alvechurch goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Plymouth vs Alvechurch goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Plymouth vs Alvechurch

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Plymouth65%1.53
Draw17%6.02
Alvechurch18%5.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.69
Under 2.541%2.46
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.58
Double chance1X (Plymouth or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)83%1.20
X2 (draw or Alvechurch)35%2.90
Handicap -1Plymouth win by 2+11%8.73
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Plymouth and Alvechurch recent form

Plymouth 3W 1D 2L
Alvechurch 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Alvechurch away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Plymouth at home only, Alvechurch away only.

Expected lineups

Plymouth lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 21 James Storer
  2. 45 W. Harding
  3. 15 A. Mitchell
  4. 2 M. Ross
  5. 8 J. Edwards
  6. 14 O. Irow
  7. 7 H. White
  8. 6 M. Boateng
  9. 10 X. Amaechi
  10. 27 A. Pepple
  11. 9 W. Evans

Bench: M. Mahoney, R. Curtis, Owen Oseni, T. Bakinson, M. Baidoo, A. Hartridge, B. Ibrahim

Alvechurch lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 4 J. Osborne
  2. 9 M. Okafor

Bench: T. Obadeyi

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match