Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

· Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Crewe to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CreweDrawAFC Wimbledon

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCreweDrawAFC Wimbledon
Model55%27%18%
Market40%28%32%
Published44%28%28%
Edge+4%0%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.81.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Crewe below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Crewe, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 2.51Now 2.32 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Crewe2.512.32-0.19
Draw3.273.29+0.02
AFC Wimbledon2.672.90+0.22

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Crewe and AFC Wimbledon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Crewe
0.81AFC Wimbledon
Total expected goals
2.42
Attack rating (Crewe / AFC Wimbledon)
0.83 / 0.56
Defence rating (Crewe / AFC Wimbledon)
0.97 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.1% 6.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 1 13.2% 12.7% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.6% 9.3% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 3 6.2% 5.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 3.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Crewe goals. Columns: AFC Wimbledon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Crewe44%2.29
Draw28%3.59
AFC Wimbledon28%3.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.30
Under 2.556%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.20
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (Crewe or draw)72%1.40
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or AFC Wimbledon)56%1.78
Handicap -1Crewe win by 2+31%3.28
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Crewe and AFC Wimbledon recent form

Crewe 3W 1D 2L
AFC Wimbledon 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Crewe lineup

  1. 23 C. McNeill
  2. 8 C. Thomas
  3. 13 I. Lawlor
  4. 14 J. Gibson
  5. 9 J. March
  6. 10 J. White
  7. 2 L. Billington
  8. 6 L. Offord
  9. 17 M. Holíček
  10. 3 R. Hutchinson

Bench: T. Booth, Kyle Ure, J. Tabiner, O. Lunt, Calum Agius, Patrick Mlynarski, A. Thibaut, S. Dancey

AFC Wimbledon lineup

  1. 29 A. Sasu
  2. 12 A. Smith
  3. 23 H. Cornick
  4. 33 I. Ogundere
  5. 39 J. Bursik
  6. 9 J. Stockley
  7. 7 J. Tilley
  8. 21 M. Hippolyte
  9. 5 O. Harrison
  10. 6 R. Johnson
  11. 3 S. Seddon

Bench: S. Sessegnon, C. Maycock, Z. Nelson, F. Simmonds, A. Yiadom, Donnell McNeilly, J. McDonnell, Harry Hedges

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Crewe 2 · draws 6 · AFC Wimbledon 2.

CreweDrawsAFC Wimbledon
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-02-11AFC Wimbledon3-0CreweLeague Two
2025-01-28Crewe1-1AFC WimbledonLeague Two
2024-03-23Crewe1-1AFC WimbledonLeague Two
2023-09-16AFC Wimbledon2-2CreweLeague Two
2023-01-07Crewe0-0AFC WimbledonLeague Two
2022-10-25AFC Wimbledon1-1CreweLeague Two
2022-04-15Crewe3-1AFC WimbledonLeague One
2021-11-23AFC Wimbledon3-2CreweLeague One
2021-01-23Crewe1-1AFC WimbledonLeague One
2020-12-19AFC Wimbledon1-2CreweLeague One

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match