Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Colchester vs Worcester City

· Colchester Community Stadium, Colchester

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Colchester to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ColchesterDrawWorcester City

Colchester vs Worcester City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceColchesterDrawWorcester City
Model22%32%46%
Market71%17%12%
Published59%21%20%
Edge-12%+4%+8%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Colchester vs Worcester City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Colchester, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.30Now 1.30 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Colchester1.301.30+0.00
Draw5.405.40+0.00
Worcester City8.388.00-0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Colchester and Worcester City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.79Colchester
1.24Worcester City
Total expected goals
2.03
Attack rating (Colchester / Worcester City)
0.65 / 0.88
Defence rating (Colchester / Worcester City)
0.95 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Colchester vs Worcester City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.4% 15.0% 10.1% 4.2% 1.7% 1 9.1% 14.2% 8.0% 3.3% 1.3% 2 4.1% 5.1% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Colchester goals. Columns: Worcester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Colchester vs Worcester City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Colchester vs Worcester City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Colchester59%1.69
Draw21%4.79
Worcester City20%4.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.02
Under 2.567%1.50
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.50
No60%1.67
Double chance1X (Colchester or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Worcester City)41%2.44
Handicap -1Colchester win by 2+7%13.74
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Colchester and Worcester City recent form

Colchester 0W 3D 3L
Worcester City 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Worcester City away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Colchester at home only, Worcester City away only.

Expected lineups

Colchester lineup

  1. 3 E. Iandolo
  2. 10 J. Payne
  3. 5 J. Tucker
  4. 26 J. Williams
  5. 17 Jaden Williams
  6. 30 K. Vincent-Young
  7. 12 M. Sesay
  8. 27 O. Thorn
  9. 6 P. Digby
  10. 20 S. Raggett
  11. 22 T. Lo-Tutala

Bench: Ben Perry, B. Ihionvien, Adrian Moyosoreoluwa Ameer Akande, Kaion Lisbie, K. Connelly, M. Jollife, S. Kuffour, R. Harvey

Worcester City lineup

  1. 6 C. Wise
  2. 5 D. Idehen
  3. 3 M. Roberts

Bench: J. Taroni

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match