Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town

· The Cuthbury, Wimborne

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Crawley Town to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Wimborne TownDrawCrawley Town

Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWimborne TownDrawCrawley Town
Model57%26%17%
Market18%21%61%
Published28%23%50%
Edge+10%+1%-11%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Crawley Town, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.42Now 1.53 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wimborne Town6.005.25-0.75
Draw4.654.40-0.25
Crawley Town1.421.53+0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wimborne Town and Crawley Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.67Wimborne Town
0.80Crawley Town
Total expected goals
2.47
Attack rating (Wimborne Town / Crawley Town)
0.95 / 0.75
Defence rating (Wimborne Town / Crawley Town)
0.73 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 5.7% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 1 13.0% 12.4% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.8% 9.4% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 3 6.5% 5.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 4.0% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Wimborne Town goals. Columns: Crawley Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wimborne Town28%3.63
Draw23%4.44
Crawley Town50%2.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.23
Under 2.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.18
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (Wimborne Town or draw)50%2.00
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Crawley Town)72%1.38
Handicap -1Crawley Town win by 2+5%18.66
Push (exactly one goal)11%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wimborne Town and Crawley Town recent form

Wimborne Town 3W 3D 0L
Crawley Town 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wimborne Town at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wimborne Town at home only, Crawley Town away only.

Expected lineups

Wimborne Town lineup

  1. 14 S. Yang

Crawley Town lineup

  1. 5 C. Barker
  2. 9 D. Orsi
  3. 20 J. Arthurs
  4. 16 J. Russell
  5. 2 K. Gordon
  6. 30 Kai Jennings
  7. 12 L. Richards
  8. 6 P. Farquharson
  9. 10 S. Duke-McKenna
  10. 1 V. Mannone

Bench: J. Flint, B. Heneghan, M. Ebiowei, L. Watson, P. Aderoju, N. Michalski, D. Pereira, A. Adeyemo, Nathan Tinsdale

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match