Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Cheltenham vs FC Halifax Town

· Whaddon Road, Cheltenham

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Cheltenham to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CheltenhamDrawFC Halifax Town

Cheltenham vs FC Halifax Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCheltenhamDrawFC Halifax Town
Model42%23%35%
Market49%24%27%
Published47%24%29%
Edge-2%0%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cheltenham vs FC Halifax Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cheltenham, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.83Now 1.91 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cheltenham1.831.91+0.08
Draw3.843.80-0.04
FC Halifax Town3.713.48-0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cheltenham and FC Halifax Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.97Cheltenham
1.81FC Halifax Town
Total expected goals
3.78
Attack rating (Cheltenham / FC Halifax Town)
0.95 / 1.10
Defence rating (Cheltenham / FC Halifax Town)
1.11 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cheltenham vs FC Halifax Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 3.3% 3.7% 2.3% 1.5% 1 3.7% 9.0% 7.4% 4.4% 3.0% 2 4.4% 8.0% 7.3% 4.4% 3.0% 3 2.9% 5.3% 4.8% 2.9% 2.0% 4+ 2.2% 4.1% 3.7% 2.2% 1.5%

Rows: Cheltenham goals. Columns: FC Halifax Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cheltenham vs FC Halifax Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cheltenham vs FC Halifax Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cheltenham47%2.13
Draw24%4.15
FC Halifax Town29%3.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.37
Under 2.527%3.67
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.67
Double chance1X (Cheltenham or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or FC Halifax Town)53%1.89
Handicap -1Cheltenham win by 2+24%4.25
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cheltenham and FC Halifax Town recent form

Cheltenham 2W 0D 4L
FC Halifax Town 2W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Cheltenham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 23 W. Stanway
  2. 26 J. Shipley
  3. 6 J. Wilson
  4. 25 P. Sweeney
  5. 3 J. Tomkinson
  6. 7 B. Stevenson
  7. 17 S. McWilliams
  8. 9 K. Otchere
  9. 8 C. McCann
  10. 19 J. Evans
  11. 18 A. Weimann

Bench: J. Day, R. Cundy, G. Miller, J. Bickerstaff, R. Broom, Favour Onukwuli, G. Nurse, M. Diallo, F. Willcox

FC Halifax Town lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 33 True Grant
  2. 3 Raheem Conte
  3. 5 S. Hobson
  4. 8 W. Flint
  5. 31 L. Houghton
  6. 17 B. Tollitt
  7. 20 T. Trusty
  8. 9 C. Carty
  9. 10 Zak Gilsenan

Bench: W. Hugill, Mackenzie Maltby, Owen Bray, D. Hill, D. Kawa, T. McDermott, C. Allen

Cheltenham vs FC Halifax Town head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Cheltenham 2 · draws 0 · FC Halifax Town 0.

CheltenhamDrawsFC Halifax Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2016-04-16Cheltenham2-0FC Halifax TownNational League
2015-10-03FC Halifax Town1-7CheltenhamNational League

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match