Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Accrington ST vs Wycombe

· The Crown Ground, Accrington

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Wycombe to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Accrington STDrawWycombe

Accrington ST vs Wycombe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAccrington STDrawWycombe
Model55%25%20%
Market29%26%45%
Published36%26%39%
Edge+6%0%-6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Accrington ST vs Wycombe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wycombe, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.98Now 2.05 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Accrington ST3.423.19-0.24
Draw3.653.60-0.05
Wycombe1.982.05+0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Accrington ST and Wycombe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.85Accrington ST
1.06Wycombe
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Accrington ST / Wycombe)
1.05 / 1.02
Defence rating (Accrington ST / Wycombe)
0.70 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Accrington ST vs Wycombe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 4.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 1 9.1% 11.8% 5.6% 2.0% 0.7% 2 9.4% 9.9% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 3 5.8% 6.1% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 4.1% 4.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Accrington ST goals. Columns: Wycombe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Accrington ST vs Wycombe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Accrington ST vs Wycombe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Accrington ST36%2.82
Draw26%3.92
Wycombe39%2.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.80
Under 2.545%2.25
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.27
Double chance1X (Accrington ST or draw)61%1.64
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Wycombe)64%1.55
Handicap -1Wycombe win by 2+8%12.78
Push (exactly one goal)13%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Accrington ST and Wycombe recent form

Accrington ST 3W 3D 0L
Wycombe 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Accrington ST lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 L. Moulden
  2. 22 J. Anderson
  3. 5 F. Rawson
  4. 17 D. Matthews
  5. 8 C. Grant
  6. 14 Stefan Mols
  7. 16 Aidan Borland
  8. 2 D. Love
  9. 10 Alex Henderson
  10. 30 C. Warren
  11. 23 T. Walton

Bench: T. Moore, S. Whalley, C. Brown, J. Rogerson, J. Smith, S. Conneely

Wycombe lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 33 J. Wildsmith
  2. 22 Sam Parker
  3. 26 C. Taylor
  4. 17 D. Casey
  5. 3 D. Harvie
  6. 11 Silko Amari Otieno Thomas
  7. 5 A. Morley
  8. 10 L. Leahy
  9. 29 M. Mothersille
  10. 19 E. Tezgel

Bench: C. Boyd-Munce, J. Wareham, Jamie Mullins, S. Moore, A. Hagelskjær, Mohamed Keita, K. Cross

Accrington ST vs Wycombe head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Accrington ST 4 · draws 1 · Wycombe 4.

Accrington STDrawsWycombe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-02-14Accrington ST0-2WycombeLeague One
2022-09-13Wycombe1-0Accrington STLeague One
2022-02-26Accrington ST3-2WycombeLeague One
2021-08-07Wycombe2-1Accrington STLeague One
2019-09-17Wycombe1-1Accrington STLeague One
2019-03-12Wycombe1-3Accrington STLeague One
2018-11-27Accrington ST1-2WycombeLeague One
2018-04-21Wycombe0-4Accrington STLeague Two
2017-11-21Accrington ST1-0WycombeLeague Two

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match