Colchester vs Walsall preview
Colchester faces Walsall with a 19% chance of winning compared to Walsall's 48%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Walsall's expected goals of 1.21 against Colchester's 0.67. Colchester's recent form shows 6 matches without a win, while Walsall has a more positive trend with 3 wins in their last 6.
The prediction could be affected if Colchester manages to improve their attacking performance, as both teams to score sits at 35%. Additionally, Walsall's defensive solidity may limit Colchester's chances, keeping the match low-scoring. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Colchester vs Walsall: model vs market
| Source | Colchester | Draw | Walsall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 33% | 48% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Walsall below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Colchester vs Walsall odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Walsall, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 2.53 | 2.53 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.34 | +0.00 |
| Walsall | 2.55 | 2.55 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colchester and Walsall expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.87
- Attack rating (Colchester / Walsall)
- 0.73 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Colchester / Walsall)
- 1.01 / 0.65
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colchester vs Walsall score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colchester goals. Columns: Walsall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colchester vs Walsall goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colchester vs Walsall
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colchester | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Walsall | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.83 |
| No | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colchester or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Walsall) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Walsall win by 2+ | 22% | 4.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Colchester and Walsall recent form
Colchester
0W 4D 2L
Walsall
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colchester at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Walsall away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-0
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Colchester at home only, Walsall away only.
Colchester vs Walsall head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Colchester 1 · draws 1 · Walsall 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Colchester | 1-1 | Walsall | League Two |
| 2025-11-15 | Walsall | 0-2 | Colchester | League Two |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Oldham vs Crawley Town 2026-10-31
- Shrewsbury v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-31
- Swindon Town vs Rotherham — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Accrington ST vs Northampton 2026-10-31
- Crewe vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Tranmere vs Cheltenham 2026-10-31
- Salford City v Exeter City — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Colchester, previous: Northampton – Colchester, 2026-10-24
- Colchester, next: Colchester – Worcester City, 2026-11-07
- Walsall, previous: Walsall vs Salford City: odds and pick
- Walsall, next: Newport County v Walsall analysis