Grimsby vs York preview
In the League Two fixture between Grimsby and York, the 1X2 probabilities show Grimsby at 39%, York at 35%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time. Grimsby has an expected goals figure of 1.40, while York's is slightly higher at 1.50.
Both teams to score stands at 60%, and Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 55%. However, the recent form indicates Grimsby has struggled with W-D-L-L-L-L, while York has been more consistent with W-D-D-D-W-L. This could affect the outcome, as Grimsby's form might lead to fewer goals than expected.
Grimsby vs York: model vs market
| Source | Grimsby | Draw | York |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Grimsby vs York odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Grimsby, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.58 | +0.00 |
| York | 2.80 | 2.76 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Grimsby and York expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Grimsby / York)
- 1.16 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Grimsby / York)
- 1.07 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Grimsby vs York score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Grimsby goals. Columns: York goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Grimsby vs York goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Grimsby vs York
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| York | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Grimsby or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or York) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win by 2+ | 16% | 6.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Grimsby and York recent form
Grimsby
1W 1D 4L
York
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Grimsby at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
York away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Grimsby at home only, York away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Port Vale vs Rochdale 2026-10-31
- Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Oldham vs Crawley Town 2026-10-31
- Shrewsbury v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-31
- Swindon Town vs Rotherham — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Accrington ST vs Northampton 2026-10-31
- Colchester v Walsall — match page 2026-10-31
- Crewe vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Grimsby, previous: Gillingham v Grimsby analysis
- Grimsby, next: Stafford Rangers v Grimsby analysis
- York, previous: Barnet v York analysis
- York, next: York – Northampton, 2026-11-07