Accrington ST vs Northampton preview
In the League Two fixture, Accrington ST has a 52% chance of winning against Northampton, who has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% probability. Accrington ST has shown solid recent form with four wins and two draws, while Northampton has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches.
The expected goals indicate Accrington ST at 1.43 and Northampton at 0.74, suggesting a potential low-scoring game. However, the 37% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score could suggest a different outcome if both teams find their attacking rhythm. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Accrington ST vs Northampton: model vs market
| Source | Accrington ST | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 29% | 18% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Accrington ST below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Accrington ST vs Northampton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Accrington ST, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | 2.23 | 2.16 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Northampton | 3.20 | 3.25 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Accrington ST and Northampton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Accrington ST / Northampton)
- 1.30 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Accrington ST / Northampton)
- 0.86 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Accrington ST vs Northampton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Accrington ST goals. Columns: Northampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Accrington ST vs Northampton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Accrington ST vs Northampton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Northampton | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Accrington ST or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Northampton) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Accrington ST win by 2+ | 27% | 3.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Accrington ST and Northampton recent form
Accrington ST
3W 3D 0L
Northampton
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Accrington ST at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Northampton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Accrington ST at home only, Northampton away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Oldham vs Crawley Town 2026-10-31
- Shrewsbury v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-31
- Swindon Town vs Rotherham — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Colchester v Walsall — match page 2026-10-31
- Crewe vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Tranmere vs Cheltenham 2026-10-31
- Salford City v Exeter City — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Accrington ST, previous: Rochdale vs Accrington ST prediction
- Accrington ST, next: Accrington ST vs Wycombe prediction
- Northampton, previous: Northampton – Colchester, 2026-10-24
- Northampton, next: York – Northampton, 2026-11-07