Oldham vs Crawley Town preview
In the League Two match between Oldham and Crawley Town, the 1X2 probabilities show Oldham at 46%, while Crawley Town sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline forecasted is 2-1, with a 9% chance of that outcome. Oldham's expected goals are 1.71, compared to Crawley Town's 1.28, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, both teams to score stands at 60%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 58%, suggesting that Crawley Town could find the net despite their recent form of D-L-L-D-L-L. Oldham has also struggled, with a recent record of D-L-W-D-L-L. This uncertainty in form could lead to unexpected results.
Oldham vs Crawley Town: model vs market
| Source | Oldham | Draw | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Oldham vs Crawley Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Oldham, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham | 1.62 | 1.63 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.00 |
| Crawley Town | 4.38 | 4.34 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Oldham and Crawley Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Oldham / Crawley Town)
- 0.93 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Oldham / Crawley Town)
- 1.18 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oldham vs Crawley Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oldham goals. Columns: Crawley Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oldham vs Crawley Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oldham vs Crawley Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Crawley Town | 23% | 4.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oldham or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Crawley Town) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oldham win by 2+ | 25% | 3.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Oldham and Crawley Town recent form
Oldham
1W 2D 3L
Crawley Town
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oldham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Crawley Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Oldham at home only, Crawley Town away only.
Oldham vs Crawley Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Oldham 1 · draws 1 · Crawley Town 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Oldham | 2-0 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2025-12-13 | Crawley Town | 2-2 | Oldham | League Two |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Shrewsbury v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-31
- Swindon Town vs Rotherham — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Accrington ST vs Northampton 2026-10-31
- Colchester v Walsall — match page 2026-10-31
- Crewe vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Tranmere vs Cheltenham 2026-10-31
- Salford City v Exeter City — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Oldham, previous: Barnet – Oldham, 2026-10-24
- Oldham, next: Oldham – Sheffield Wednesday, 2026-11-08
- Crawley Town, previous: Crawley Town vs Tranmere: odds and pick
- Crawley Town, next: Wimborne Town – Crawley Town, 2026-11-08