Shrewsbury vs Gillingham preview
Shrewsbury faces Gillingham with a 44% chance of winning compared to Gillingham's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time in our model. Shrewsbury's expected goals stand at 1.78, while Gillingham's is lower at 1.45.
Both teams to score has a probability of 65%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 63%. However, Shrewsbury's recent form includes a draw and two wins, while Gillingham has struggled with two losses and a draw in their last five matches. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable.
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham: model vs market
| Source | Shrewsbury | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shrewsbury, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 1.94 | 1.94 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.35 | +0.00 |
| Gillingham | 3.77 | 3.73 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shrewsbury and Gillingham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Shrewsbury / Gillingham)
- 1.08 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Shrewsbury / Gillingham)
- 1.19 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shrewsbury goals. Columns: Gillingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shrewsbury vs Gillingham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shrewsbury | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Gillingham | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shrewsbury or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Gillingham) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shrewsbury win by 2+ | 25% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Shrewsbury and Gillingham recent form
Shrewsbury
3W 2D 1L
Gillingham
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shrewsbury at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Gillingham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Shrewsbury at home only, Gillingham away only.
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Shrewsbury 0 · draws 1 · Gillingham 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Gillingham | 1-0 | Shrewsbury | League Two |
| 2025-11-29 | Shrewsbury | 3-3 | Gillingham | League Two |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Accrington ST vs Northampton 2026-10-31
- Colchester v Walsall — match page 2026-10-31
- Crewe vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Tranmere vs Cheltenham 2026-10-31
- Salford City v Exeter City — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Shrewsbury, previous: Rotherham vs Shrewsbury: odds and pick
- Shrewsbury, next: Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury: odds and pick
- Gillingham, previous: Gillingham v Grimsby analysis
- Gillingham, next: Gillingham v Barrow analysis