Newport County vs Chesterfield preview
In the League Two fixture between Newport County and Chesterfield, the 1X2 probabilities show Chesterfield at 45%, while Newport County is at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Chesterfield's recent form includes two wins in their last six matches, while Newport County has one win in their last five.
The expected goals are 1.22 for Newport County and 1.39 for Chesterfield, suggesting a close match. The model indicates a 54% chance for both teams to score and a 48% chance for Over 2.5 goals. However, Newport County's home advantage and their recent form could challenge Chesterfield's higher probability of winning.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: model vs market
| Source | Newport County | Draw | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 47% |
| Published | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Newport County vs Chesterfield odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chesterfield, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 3.46 | 3.46 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.49 | +0.00 |
| Chesterfield | 1.98 | 1.98 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Newport County and Chesterfield expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Newport County / Chesterfield)
- 0.88 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Newport County / Chesterfield)
- 0.88 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Newport County vs Chesterfield score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Newport County goals. Columns: Chesterfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Newport County vs Chesterfield goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Newport County vs Chesterfield
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 28% | 3.57 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Chesterfield | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Newport County or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Chesterfield) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win by 2+ | 19% | 5.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Newport County and Chesterfield recent form
Newport County
2W 3D 1L
Chesterfield
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Newport County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chesterfield away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Newport County at home only, Chesterfield away only.
Newport County vs Chesterfield head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Newport County 1 · draws 0 · Chesterfield 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Newport County | 2-1 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 2025-09-27 | Chesterfield | 4-1 | Newport County | League Two |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Port Vale vs Rochdale 2026-10-31
- Grimsby v York — match page 2026-10-31
- Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Oldham vs Crawley Town 2026-10-31
- Shrewsbury v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-31
- Swindon Town vs Rotherham — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Accrington ST vs Northampton 2026-10-31
- Colchester v Walsall — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Newport County, previous: Cheltenham v Newport County analysis
- Newport County, next: Newport County v Walsall analysis
- Chesterfield, previous: Chesterfield – Crewe, 2026-10-24
- Chesterfield, next: Chesterfield – Yeovil Town, 2026-11-07