Swindon Town vs Rotherham preview
Swindon Town faces Rotherham with a 48% chance of winning, while Rotherham sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline for this match is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 1.67 for Swindon Town and 1.16 for Rotherham.
Both teams to score has a probability of 57%, suggesting a good chance of goals from both sides. However, Swindon Town's recent form shows they have drawn three times in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Rotherham has also struggled, with five draws in their last six games, indicating a potential for a low-scoring match despite the statistics.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham: model vs market
| Source | Swindon Town | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 31% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Swindon Town vs Rotherham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Swindon Town, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 2.36 | 2.30 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.50 | +0.02 |
| Rotherham | 2.67 | 2.79 | +0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Swindon Town and Rotherham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Swindon Town / Rotherham)
- 0.83 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Swindon Town / Rotherham)
- 0.95 / 1.43
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Swindon Town goals. Columns: Rotherham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Swindon Town vs Rotherham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 | |
| Rotherham | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Swindon Town or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Rotherham) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Swindon Town win by 2+ | 26% | 3.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Swindon Town and Rotherham recent form
Swindon Town
1W 3D 2L
Rotherham
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Swindon Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rotherham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Swindon Town at home only, Rotherham away only.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Swindon Town 1 · draws 0 · Rotherham 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Rotherham | 1-2 | Swindon Town | England FA Cup |
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Before and after this match
- Swindon Town, previous: Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town prediction
- Swindon Town, next: Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town prediction
- Rotherham, previous: Rotherham vs Shrewsbury: odds and pick
- Rotherham, next: Bromley vs Rotherham prediction