Everton vs Newcastle United preview
In the League Cup fixture between Everton and Newcastle United, the 1X2 probabilities show Everton at 41%, Newcastle United at 32%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Everton's expected goals stand at 1.81, while Newcastle United's is 1.38.
The model indicates a 62% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score. However, Everton's recent form includes 3 draws in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Newcastle United has shown better form with 4 wins in their last 6 games, making this matchup unpredictable.
Why this pick: Everton vs Newcastle United
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Everton 10, Newcastle United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Everton vs Newcastle United: model vs market
| Source | Everton | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.34.
- The market prices Everton below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Everton vs Newcastle United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Everton, 64 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 2.35 | 2.35 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Newcastle United | 2.85 | 2.85 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Everton and Newcastle United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Everton / Newcastle United)
- 1.11 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Everton / Newcastle United)
- 0.91 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Everton vs Newcastle United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Newcastle United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Everton vs Newcastle United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Everton vs Newcastle United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton | 41% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Newcastle United | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.63 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Everton or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Newcastle United) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Everton win by 2+ | 24% | 4.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Everton and Newcastle United recent form
Everton
2W 3D 1L
Newcastle United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Everton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Newcastle United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Everton at home only, Newcastle United away only.
Everton vs Newcastle United head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Everton 3 · draws 2 · Newcastle United 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Newcastle United | 2-3 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2025-11-29 | Everton | 1-4 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2025-05-25 | Newcastle United | 0-1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2024-10-05 | Everton | 0-0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2024-04-02 | Newcastle United | 1-1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-12-07 | Everton | 3-0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Bradford v Peterborough — match page 2026-10-27
- Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal 2026-10-27
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-28
- Bournemouth v Aston Villa — match page 2026-10-28
- Fulham vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Sunderland vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Liverpool vs Chelsea 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Everton, previous: Arsenal v Everton analysis
- Newcastle United, previous: Crystal Palace v Newcastle United analysis