Why this pick: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bournemouth 10, Aston Villa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 54 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Aston Villa | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bournemouth and Aston Villa recent form
Bournemouth
2W 2D 2L
Aston Villa
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bournemouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Aston Villa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Bournemouth at home only, Aston Villa away only.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bournemouth 0 · draws 3 · Aston Villa 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Bournemouth | 1-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2025-11-09 | Aston Villa | 4-0 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2025-05-10 | Bournemouth | 0-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-10-26 | Aston Villa | 1-1 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2024-04-21 | Aston Villa | 3-1 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2023-12-03 | Bournemouth | 2-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Bradford v Peterborough — match page 2026-10-27
- Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal 2026-10-27
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-28
- Fulham vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Sunderland vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Liverpool vs Chelsea 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Bournemouth, previous: Bournemouth – AC Milan, 2026-10-22
- Aston Villa, previous: Aston Villa vs Viking prediction