Levante vs Sevilla preview
Levante faces Sevilla with a 41% chance of winning according to model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.94 for Levante and 1.18 for Sevilla. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both sit at 62%, indicating a strong potential for an open match.
However, recent form shows Levante with two losses in their last three matches, while Sevilla has won three of their last five. This inconsistency for Levante could impact their performance, making the predicted outcome less certain. The head-to-head record favors Levante, with two wins in their last two encounters against Sevilla, which could also play a role in the match dynamics.
Why this pick: Levante vs Sevilla
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Levante 10, Sevilla 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Levante vs Sevilla: model vs market
| Source | Levante | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | +19% | -3% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.18.
- The market prices Levante below the model: +19.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.74, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Levante vs Sevilla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Levante, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 2.61 | 2.62 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.30 | +0.05 |
| Sevilla | 2.79 | 2.63 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Levante and Sevilla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Levante / Sevilla)
- 1.21 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Levante / Sevilla)
- 1.30 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Levante vs Sevilla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Levante goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Levante vs Sevilla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Levante vs Sevilla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levante | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Sevilla | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Levante or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Sevilla) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Levante win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Levante and Sevilla recent form
Levante
1W 2D 3L
Sevilla
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Levante at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Sevilla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Levante at home only, Sevilla away only.
Levante vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Levante 2 · draws 0 · Sevilla 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Levante | 2-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2026-01-04 | Sevilla | 0-3 | Levante | La Liga |
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