VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips 20/10/2026

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid preview

In the UEFA Champions League fixture between VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid, the model gives VfB Stuttgart a 44% chance of winning, while Atletico Madrid stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. The model also suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 77%.

However, the outcome could change if Atletico Madrid improves its recent form, which includes three wins in their last six matches. VfB Stuttgart's recent form shows two wins in their last six, which could impact their scoring efficiency. The expected goals are 2.18 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.94 for Atletico Madrid, indicating a competitive match ahead.

Why this pick: VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (VfB Stuttgart 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VfB StuttgartAtletico Madrid

2.19 xG per 90 1.96

2.10 npxG per 90 1.78

10.7 PPDA 10.3

8.2 Deep completions per 90 10.8

1.29 xPTS per 90 1.86

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	VfB Stuttgart	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Model	39%	22%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	39%	22%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96VfB Stuttgart

1.96Atletico Madrid

Total expected goals: 3.93
Attack rating (VfB Stuttgart / Atletico Madrid): 1.32 / 1.20
Defence rating (VfB Stuttgart / Atletico Madrid): 1.28 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 3.1% 3.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1 3.1% 8.4% 7.5% 4.9% 3.8% 2 3.8% 7.5% 7.3% 4.8% 3.7% 3 2.5% 4.9% 4.8% 3.1% 2.4% 4+ 1.9% 3.8% 3.7% 2.4% 1.9%

Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 75%

Over 3.5 55%

Both teams to score: 75%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	VfB Stuttgart	39%	2.58
	Draw	22%	4.46
	Atletico Madrid	39%	2.58
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	75%	1.33
	Under 2.5	25%	4.02
Both teams to score	Yes	75%	1.34
	No	25%	3.95
Double chance	1X (VfB Stuttgart or draw)	61%	1.63
	12 (either side)	78%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid)	61%	1.63
Handicap -1	VfB Stuttgart win by 2+	22%	4.64
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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