Roma vs Slovan Bratislava Prediction & Betting Tips 20/10/2026

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava preview

In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Roma and Slovan Bratislava, the 1X2 probabilities show Roma at 74%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. Roma's expected goals stand at 2.80, while Slovan Bratislava has an expected goals figure of 1.03.

Roma's recent form is strong, with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Slovan Bratislava has struggled, recording 3 losses in their last 6 games. The model suggests a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 61%. However, if Slovan Bratislava performs better than expected, these predictions could be challenged.

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Roma	Draw	Slovan Bratislava
Model	70%	17%	13%
Market	—	—	—
Published	70%	17%	13%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.10.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Roma and Slovan Bratislava expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.67Roma

1.10Slovan Bratislava

Total expected goals: 3.77
Attack rating (Roma / Slovan Bratislava): 1.37 / 1.11
Defence rating (Roma / Slovan Bratislava): 0.78 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1 5.5% 7.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 2 8.2% 9.0% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 3 7.3% 8.0% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 4+ 9.3% 10.2% 5.6% 2.1% 0.7%

Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Slovan Bratislava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 73%

Over 3.5 52%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Roma vs Slovan Bratislava

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Roma	70%	1.43
	Draw	17%	5.76
	Slovan Bratislava	13%	7.92
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	73%	1.38
	Under 2.5	27%	3.66
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.59
	No	37%	2.69
Double chance	1X (Roma or draw)	87%	1.14
	12 (either side)	83%	1.21
	X2 (draw or Slovan Bratislava)	30%	3.34
Handicap -1	Roma win by 2+	50%	2.01
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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