Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction & Betting Tips 20/10/2026

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt preview

Napoli faces Bodo/Glimt with a 42% chance of winning compared to Bodo/Glimt's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which our model predicts at 8%. Both teams to score stands at 70%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 69%.

Napoli's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Bodo/Glimt has 4 wins in the same period. This could affect the outcome, as Bodo/Glimt's recent success might boost their confidence. Expected goals are 1.88 for Napoli and 1.69 for Bodo/Glimt, indicating a competitive match ahead.

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Napoli	Draw	Bodo/Glimt
Model	41%	22%	37%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	22%	37%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Napoli and Bodo/Glimt expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.03Napoli

1.92Bodo/Glimt

Total expected goals: 3.94
Attack rating (Napoli / Bodo/Glimt): 1.05 / 1.67
Defence rating (Napoli / Bodo/Glimt): 0.90 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 3.0% 3.6% 2.3% 1.7% 1 3.2% 8.3% 7.2% 4.6% 3.4% 2 4.0% 7.6% 7.3% 4.7% 3.5% 3 2.7% 5.2% 4.9% 3.2% 2.3% 4+ 2.2% 4.2% 4.0% 2.6% 1.9%

Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Bodo/Glimt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 75%

Over 3.5 56%

Both teams to score: 75%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Napoli	41%	2.44
	Draw	22%	4.48
	Bodo/Glimt	37%	2.73
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	75%	1.33
	Under 2.5	25%	4.06
Both teams to score	Yes	75%	1.34
	No	25%	3.97
Double chance	1X (Napoli or draw)	63%	1.58
	12 (either side)	78%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Bodo/Glimt)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	Napoli win by 2+	23%	4.30
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer