Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund preview
In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund, the 1X2 probabilities show Sabah FA at 49%, while Borussia Dortmund is at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% probability.
The model also suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. Sabah FA's expected goals stand at 1.78, compared to Borussia Dortmund's 1.24. If Borussia Dortmund's recent form of six consecutive wins falters or if Sabah FA's home advantage proves significant, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund: model vs market
| Source | Sabah FA | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.17.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Sabah FA / Borussia Dortmund)
- 1.25 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Sabah FA / Borussia Dortmund)
- 0.62 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sabah FA goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabah FA | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sabah FA or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Borussia Dortmund) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabah FA win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund recent form
Sabah FA
4W 1D 1L
Borussia Dortmund
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sabah FA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sabah FA at home only, Borussia Dortmund away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
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- Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid 2026-10-20
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- Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt — team news & stats 2026-10-20
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Before and after this match
- Sabah FA, previous: Qabala v Sabah FA analysis
- Borussia Dortmund, previous: Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-10-17
- Borussia Dortmund, next: Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen analysis