Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund, the 1X2 probabilities show Borussia Dortmund at 60% to win, while Union Berlin sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Borussia Dortmund's recent form is strong, with 6 consecutive wins, while Union Berlin has struggled, recording 2 wins in their last 6 matches.
The model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 65%. Union Berlin's expected goals are 1.29, while Borussia Dortmund's are significantly higher at 2.69. If Union Berlin can improve their form and defense, they might challenge Dortmund more than expected.
Why this pick: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Union Berlin 10, Borussia Dortmund 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: model vs market
| Source | Union Berlin | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 19% | 68% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Published | 19% | 22% | 60% |
| Edge | -7% | -4% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Borussia Dortmund below the model: +10.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 6.00 | 4.65 | -1.35 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.18 | -0.57 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.44 | 1.66 | +0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.96
- Attack rating (Union Berlin / Borussia Dortmund)
- 0.96 / 1.43
- Defence rating (Union Berlin / Borussia Dortmund)
- 1.28 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union Berlin goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Berlin | 19% | 5.40 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union Berlin or draw) | 40% | 2.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Borussia Dortmund) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win by 2+ | 48% | 2.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund recent form
Union Berlin
2W 1D 3L
Borussia Dortmund
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union Berlin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Borussia Dortmund away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Union Berlin at home only, Borussia Dortmund away only.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Union Berlin 2 · draws 0 · Borussia Dortmund 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Union Berlin | 0-3 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-31 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-22 | Borussia Dortmund | 6-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-05 | Union Berlin | 2-1 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-02 | Union Berlin | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-07 | Borussia Dortmund | 4-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2023-04-08 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-1 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2022-10-16 | Union Berlin | 2-0 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2022-02-13 | Union Berlin | 0-3 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2021-09-19 | Borussia Dortmund | 4-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne 2026-10-16
- Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 2026-10-17
- FC Schalke 04 v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-17
- Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- SV Elversberg v Augsburg — match page 2026-10-17
- Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Borussia M.Gladbach v Hoffenheim — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Union Berlin, previous: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: odds and pick
- Union Berlin, next: FC Cologne v Union Berlin analysis
- Borussia Dortmund, previous: Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
- Borussia Dortmund, next: Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund analysis