Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07, the 1X2 probabilities show Werder Bremen at 48%, a draw at 25%, and SC Paderborn 07 at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%.
Both teams to score stands at 60%, and there is a 54% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Expected goals are close, with Werder Bremen at 1.54 and SC Paderborn 07 at 1.44. However, if SC Paderborn can improve their recent form, which includes two wins in their last five matches, they could challenge Werder Bremen's slight edge.
Why this pick: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Werder Bremen 10, SC Paderborn 07 5). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: model vs market
| Source | Werder Bremen | Draw | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | -19% | +6% | +13% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Werder Bremen, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 1.55 | 1.79 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 3.95 | -0.25 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 5.50 | 4.10 | -1.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Werder Bremen / SC Paderborn 07)
- 0.82 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Werder Bremen / SC Paderborn 07)
- 1.08 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Werder Bremen goals. Columns: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Werder Bremen | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Werder Bremen or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or SC Paderborn 07) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Werder Bremen win by 2+ | 17% | 5.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 recent form
Werder Bremen
3W 2D 1L
SC Paderborn 07
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Werder Bremen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
SC Paderborn 07 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Werder Bremen at home only, SC Paderborn 07 away only.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Werder Bremen 4 · draws 3 · SC Paderborn 07 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Werder Bremen | 2-2 | SC Paderborn 07 | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-30 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0-1 | Werder Bremen | DFB Pokal |
| 2022-10-19 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2-2 | Werder Bremen | DFB Pokal |
| 2022-01-22 | SC Paderborn 07 | 3-4 | Werder Bremen | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2021-08-15 | Werder Bremen | 1-4 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2020-06-13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-5 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2019-12-08 | Werder Bremen | 0-1 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 2015-04-26 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2-2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2014-11-29 | Werder Bremen | 4-0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
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Before and after this match
- Werder Bremen, previous: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: odds and pick
- Werder Bremen, next: Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen analysis
- SC Paderborn 07, previous: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
- SC Paderborn 07, next: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart prediction