SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart preview
In the DFB Pokal fixture, SC Paderborn 07 faces VfB Stuttgart, with a 78% probability for Stuttgart to win compared to just 8% for Paderborn. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with Stuttgart's expected goals of 2.97 against Paderborn's 0.94.
While Stuttgart is favored, Paderborn could surprise if they manage to score, as both teams to score has a 58% probability. Additionally, the high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 75% suggests that Stuttgart may dominate the match, but any defensive lapses could lead to a different outcome.
Why this pick: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SC Paderborn 07 5, VfB Stuttgart 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market
| Source | SC Paderborn 07 | Draw | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (SC Paderborn 07 / VfB Stuttgart)
- 0.84 / 1.17
- Defence rating (SC Paderborn 07 / VfB Stuttgart)
- 0.95 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 8% | 12.22 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.12 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Paderborn 07 or draw) | 22% | 4.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart) | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win by 2+ | 59% | 1.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart recent form
SC Paderborn 07
2W 1D 3L
VfB Stuttgart
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VfB Stuttgart away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 at home only, VfB Stuttgart away only.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 0 · draws 1 · VfB Stuttgart 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-31 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-2 | VfB Stuttgart | DFB Pokal |
| 2015-05-23 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2014-12-20 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
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- Hannover 96 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern — match page 2026-10-27
- Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg — team news & stats 2026-10-27
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Before and after this match
- SC Paderborn 07, previous: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: odds and pick
- VfB Stuttgart, previous: VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid analysis